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Nigeria’s Fourth Republic : What Is Working and What is not, Rep. Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Nigeria’s Fourth Republic : What Is Working and What is not, Rep. Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje

Nigeria Fourth Republic,
Nigerian Democracy Analysis,
What Is Working in Nigeria,
What Is Failing in Nigeria,
National Assembly Nigeria,
Hon Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje,
Nigeria Governance Crisis,
Post-1999 Nigerian Politics,
Legislative Performance Nigeria,
Nigeria Political Reform Debate

 

Did you know that in Mexico, an air conditioner is called a politician? When asked why, they said “because it makes a lot of noise but doesn’t work very well”.
After three decades of military interventions and dominance, a convergence of anti military forces, pro democracy civil society organizations, determined Nigerian citizens and international pressure groups, would ensure that the dream of a democratic Nigeria was actualized to great hope and expectations of new found freedoms and all the celebrated gains of self rule. This achievement was probably the most consequential democratic experiment of the global south.
A period of great global power peace gave rise to the growth of globalism and multi-lateralism which fostered cooperation and strengthened the Anglo-American consensus of global governance; Nigeria would be a beneficiary of that new world order.
Over two decades, the world has witnessed a stealth period of democratic recession which to many was almost imperceptible. Democratic principles were silently being remodified to the point where a critical re-examination is required as the underpinnings of our views on democratic institutions, rules and ethos are being redefined most disruptively. The thought provoking speech by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada at the world economic forum in Davos yesterday was the big bang that seems to have shaken us all out of our reverie and caused us to seriously interrogate what we knew democracy to be as well as to honestly assess our preparedness for the emerging new world order.
Ladies and gentlemen, I am truly honored to be part of the assemblage of eminent individuals invited to interrogate the health of our democratic experiment, I shall speak to the growing gaps

between politics and governance today; which has become the defining challenge of Nigeria’s fourth republic. Remaining optimistic, I shall try to challenge the dooms day quote by John Quincy Adams; the 2nd President of the United States of America’ which says “Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself,”
John F. Kennedy; the 35th President of the United States of America, says and I quote, ‘’Democracy is never a final achievement, it’s a call to an untiring effort’’.
We are confronted with questionable electoral integrity, the proliferation of illiberal democracies and constitutional overreach. In the African sub-region, the increasing incidence and popularity of military coups as well as the security, stability and prosperity of non-democratic countries such as China, Singapore and United Arab Emirates increase our quandary. The superior qualities of democracy are under scrutiny. Will our untiring efforts according to JFK challenge the death prophecy according to John Adams??
Statistics from the institute for democracy and electoral assistance state that globally 58% of adults are dissatisfied with democracy. In Nigeria a significant and growing number (over 70%) are dissatisfied with how democracy actually functions in the country, seeing it as flawed or poorly implemented, and many believing elections don’t reflect their views or remove bad leaders.
Yes, Nigerians vote but accountability remains weak, institutions are not rules based, public confidence in leadership is declining and voter turnout has steadily dropped, reflecting growing political disillusionment. Voter turn out in Nigeria’s Presidential elections have declined sharply over recent years; from 52% in 1999, to 46% in 2015, and then 35% in 2019, to a dismal 26.7% in 2023 reflecting continued disengagement from the electoral process.
NOW UNTO THE GOOD NEWS
Access to quality education, healthcare, housing and social protection remains uneven. Nigeria has one of the highest numbers of out-of-school children globally, estimated at over 18 million. Health indicators lag behind peer countries. Social policies often react to crises rather than

preventing them. Nigeria’s population is young, energetic and ambitious, yet grossly underutilized, When human potential is wasted, democratic hope weakens, brain drain and limited opportunities threaten long term productivity. However, for the 4th Republic it is not all gloom and doom, there are some high points;
 In August 2001, GSM technology was formally introduced to Nigeria. ICT impacted our socio-political and economic existence. As of 2024, there were two hundred and twenty two million telephone subscribers, the beginning of the democratization of information and new avenues for wealth creation, our democracy became more accountable by expanding citizens opportunities to freedom of interrogation, expression and association. Mobilization and organization for citizens engagement to oppressive government policies became more effective and impactful, I can’t think of a better example than the end SARS protest. As we see a decline in activities of civil society organizations, citizen advocacy is on the rise and exposing human right abuses has never been easier. People like Martins Otse also known as Very Darkman and Precious Oruche also known as mama Pee lead the charge in that area. Economically, digital content creators have brought immense value to the Nigerian economy; creating millions of jobs, exporting the nation’s culture globally, and providing new avenues for socio-economic expression. ICT is undoubtedly one of the most disruptively impactful achievements of 4th Republic.

 The creative industry in Nigeria’s 4th Republic which encompasses music, films, the art, fashion and food, has grown from a largely informal sector to the country’s second largest employer of labour after agriculture. Nigerian music artistes have become international house hold names. Nigerian fashion has appeared on major international run ways. Publishing authors such as Chimmanda Adichie are globally acclaimed. So also are the culinary arts, visual arts and the growing video game sector. In 2023 alone, motion pictures, sound recording, and music production contributed approximately $1.73 billion to the Nigeria Economy

An unbroken chain of transfer of democratic power through 8 cycles of elections from one ruling political party the PDP, to a previously opposition coalition party APC without interruptions by coups or extra-judicial changes should be cheery news. It should be an indication that our democracy is alive and well. But is it? Unfortunately, democracy is simply not only the ballot box; democracy is not validated by longevity alone, it is validated by outcomes.
Our democratic experiment raises its own credibility questions. The independence of the umpire INEC, the shrinking of the political space, the heightened intolerance of any viable opposition and the decline of multi party political systems. There are allegations that Nigeria dances dangerously on the brink of becoming a one party state. The only challenge to that rests on the belief that our diversity will prove such attempted monolithic control near impossible. We wait and see.
WHAT IS NOT WORKING

The governability of our democracy is exposing huge gaps. To understand our strength and failures we must first query what is elections, what is governance and why confusing the two has become costly. Elections is about winning power, it is a means to an end, while governance is about using power responsibly and effectively. Governance is long term planning, it is institutional defence and growth, it is policy formation and implementation; it is service delivery, it is accountability.
Elections are episodic, governance is continuous. Elections ask who should lead, governance answers how society should be run. Elections creates authority, governance creates outcomes. The paradox of the fourth Republic is that while politics is vibrant, democracy is fragile. Democracy simply appears unable to solve the country’s major problems of rising widespread insecurity and the eradication of multi-dimensional poverty which seems to have overwhelmed the leadership of the country. I will highlight;

Amidst declining public finance accountability and profligacy amongst the political class, According to World Bank reports of 2025, over 75% of Nigerians live below the United Nations (UN) poverty threshold of $2 per day; translating to over 133 million people who are said to be living in multi-dimensional poverty; a steep rise from 87 million in 2018 with a new Price Water Cooper report projecting 141 million people by the end of 2026.
More disturbing statistics from the NDIC confirmed by the Minister of Finance; Mr. Wale Edun states that only 2% of the 70 million bank account holders have more than ₦500,000 five hundred thousand naira ($350) or above in their account. Democracy has clearly not translated to economic security.
The quest for nation building and cohesion has proven to be a major challenge with our fault lines magnified by our socio-economic disparities. This polarization with its ethnic and religious leanings obviously predate the 4th Republic but has been exacerbated over time by vicious politics and entrenched inequalities, partisan traditional media, distrust in institutions and technological tools like social media and Artificial intelligence, spewing hate speech and violence, computational propaganda, deep fakes and imagery.
Nigerians today do not speak only about the traditionally perceived inequity between the north and south of Nigeria, as we inch closer towards the election cycle, the recurrent North-South conversations are again beginning to rear their heads this time with a different more divisive twist. For the first time, more people are beginning to engage in the Micro equity and Southern contiguity conversations, probably as a result of the perception of a skewed distribution of resources arising from widely held and touted beliefs that the southwest benefits unfairly at the expense of the other composite parts of the southern region like the South-East and the South- South.
Our democracy has obviously not learnt to walk the narrow corridor of creating a state strong enough to ensure stability amidst democratically guaranteed institutional freedoms such as the

freedom of expression and freedom of association. Repression has become increasingly fashionable, illiberal populism seems to be on the rise and the rule of law seems to be in retreat.
GENDER INCLUSION

No honest assessment can ignore gender disparities in political and leadership representation: There is a Chinese saying that ‘’you can’t hold up the sky with one hand’’
Nigeria has a historically low representation of women in political office, generally under 6 %, and was ranked 139th out of 156 countries in gender equality metrics. With 14 females out of 360 members in the House of Representatives and only 4 out of 109 Senators, Nigeria falls significantly below the African regional average of roughly 23.4% and the global average of 26.1% for women in parliament. 15 states out of 36 operate their legislature with zero female representation.
When half the population is underrepresented in decision-making, development and governance, outcomes inevitably suffer. This is not merely a gender issue; it is a governance failure. Evidence consistently shows that societies that include women in leadership experience:
• Better social outcomes
• Stronger community trust
• More sustainable development
A democracy that marginalizes women weakens itself. The period between 1999 and 2003 surpassed the prescribed 35% in appointive positions and witnessed women holding very strategic cabinet positions and delivering excellently on their mandate. The evidence is not abstract. Nigeria itself provides a powerful counterfactual.
When Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was appointed Minister of Finance, Nigeria was burdened by over
$30 billion in external debt, with debt servicing consuming a crippling share of national revenue and crowding out spending on development. Through disciplined fiscal management, institutional

reform, and one of the most complex sovereign negotiations in modern history, her leadership culminated in a landmark $18 billion debt relief deal with the Paris Club in 2005. That single outcome:
• Reduced Nigeria’s debt stock by more than 60 percent
• Freed billions of dollars annually for social and infrastructure spending
• Restored international credibility to Nigeria’s public finance system
This was not symbolic inclusion. It was measurable national gain. The lesson is clear: when Nigeria entrusted a woman with real authority over a critical institution, the result was not optics, it was outcomes. It was not propaganda; it was felt in all our homes.
Legislative interventions such as the special seat bill which has been presented consistently in the last three assemblies, the 8th, 9th and 10th assemblies have failed to get the desired legislative votes to achieve the affirmative action fillip required to close the embarrassing gender gaps as yet. The National Assembly will do well to seize this opportunity to etch its name glowingly in the annals of Nigeria’s history by passing the Special Seats Bill to allow for more female participation in governance. Nigeria desperately needs it.
YOUTH INCLUSION

Africa has been referred to as a young continent with old leadership and it is no less true for Nigeria. Over 70% of the Nigerian population is below the age of 40. 154 million young men and women out of our approximately 220 million population. Were all the youth in Nigeria to be resident in one country, that country would be the 10th most populous country in the world. The youth suffer much the same fate as women. The Nigerian state will do well to recognize the benefits of integrating this critical, mobile, innovative human force of development.

ONTO THE INSTITUTIONS

The Nigerian Judiciary has a 21% approval rating. A new report by the Africa Polling Institute (API) has found that 79% of Nigerians have little to no trust in the country’s judiciary, citing concerns like political influence, inefficiency, delay of the judicial process and erosion of integrity. Ironically, this appears to contrast sharply with known cases of bold judges who stood against authoritarian actions during the military era.
Justice Niki Tobi (JSC) of blessed memory puts it succinctly and I quote; “While politics as a profession is fully and totally based on partiality, most of the time, judgeship as a profession is fully and totally based on impartiality, the opposite of partiality. Their waters must never meet in the same way Rivers Niger and Benue meet at the confluence near Lokoja. If they meet, the victim will be democracy most of the time and that will be bad for sovereign Nigeria. We need democracy; not despotism, oligarchy and totalitarianism. Judges should, on no account, dance to the music played by politicians because that will completely destroy their role as independent umpires in the judicial process”.
This in my opinion should be the new template for the judiciary in Nigeria’s fledgling democracy.

THE LEGISLATURE

The problems that confront the legislature are tetra-headed. It battles weak legislative support systems and high attrition rate. The National Assembly records an average of 75% in legislator’s turnover since the fourth republic. Consequently, there is no institutional memory. In 26 years, the Legislature as an institution has struggled constantly to find its true relevance and independence in the tripartite spectre of democratic governance.
The bastion of our democracy, it is the only institution in government that echoes the voice of the people. The duty of the legislature is to mitigate usurpation of authority and accumulation of power in one person. When performed optimally, it checks unilateral executive action and balances the powers of the executive.

Between 2005 and 2006, an independent legislature voted against a constitutional amendment that sought to extend the tenure of an administration beyond the prescribed term limits.
In 2010, the Legislature invoked the controversial “doctrine of necessity” to proffer a political solution at a turbulent time in our nation’s history.
In the quest to entrench legislative independence, the National Assembly in a well publicized act of defiance resisted executive interference in the choice of her leadership and experienced probably the most vibrant Assembly till date. That was a period of mutual respect, greater accountability, better representation and more robust citizen participation. Those were the 7th & 8th Assemblies.
Sadly, the National Assembly seems to have yielded the hard fought for independence. There exists overarching executive dominance probably as a result of interference in the emergence of the leadership of the 10th Assembly which has earned them the unkind sobriquet from the Nigerian public; “Rubber Stamp Assembly”.
The integrity of the National Assembly, its actors and its actions have never been called more to question as recently when one of the core functions of the legislature, law making came under scrutiny amidst alleged distortions, inclusions and forgeries; and someone, or people or institutions acting Ultra Vires; post assent of a critical piece of legislation; The Nigerian Tax law. This, for the first time in our history sadly calls to question the integrity of all the laws that have been passed recently.
With regards to oversight another core function of the national assembly, the people question the inability to fund capital budgets, the three year cumulative budget deficit exceeding fifty trillion Naira, the 2026 fiscal deficit of 23.85 trillion naira, and debt service obligations of 15.2 trillion naira which exceeds the combined budget allocation for defense and security at a time where our country is almost crippled by insecurity, education and health budgets combined. People worry that the Mid Term Expenditure Framework MTEF and the Appropriation Act are blind to details of

the much touted Lagos-Calabar coastal high way in spite of its staggering cost. Furthermore, Nigerians understandably concerned about the leadership selection process, worry about the abuse of the confirmation powers for the Executive positions. The National Assembly seems to have abandoned all pretence of neutrality and the people question not only their performance but their competence.
CONCLUSION

In conclusion, without doubt, our country is exhibiting the warning signs of democratic fatigue. Voter apathy, youth disengagement, separatist tensions, and rising cynicism are warning signs. With more liberal voices silenced, we are confronted with the rise of populism and sycophantic allegiance to man not state. A sad reality is highlighted by the fact that those who wish to push the very elastic limits of our democracy are weaponizing and deploying the very institutions that should uphold and sustain it. The arduous task to prove that democracy can still deliver better than any other alternatives depends on the critical shift from democracy as power acquisition to democracy as service and governance.
We the people must be reminded that it is not only permissible, to hold government to account, it is our duty, we must stop looking away from the fact that the titanic of state has hit an ice berg, we must stop dancing to the loud music of elections and start to look for the life boats of governance. We all, the tripod of the elected; the citizens and the gatekeepers; made up of the media, civil society and the judiciary, with political parties acting as filters, must recommit to personal, institutional and systemic reforms. We must unlearn those retrogressive habits and position to acquire new rules of governance that will help us survive and dominate the revolutionary change that is upon us. In the words of Mark Carney, ‘’if we are not at the table were are on the menu’’.
We must breach the trust deficit between the elected and the governed. We must demand transparency from the elected and resist the constitutional overreach of the executive. We must

defend the integrity of strong state institutions and finally, we must insist on a respected impartial justice system.
A unified vision in our collective quest for security, good governance, prosperity, inclusiveness and accountability must be the absolute barest minimum. Embracing our diversity is non negotiable if we intend to build a prosperous nation in today’s world.

Thank you all for your kind attention!

Speech written and delivered by
Rep. Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje

22nd January 2026

Police Denials of Abductions of 160 during Church service Triggers Security Credibility Crisis

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Police Denials of Abductions of 160 during Church service Triggers Security Credibility Crisis

The most critical domestic security concern this week centers on Kaduna State, where reports emerged of a coordinated mass abduction targeting Christian worshippers in Kurmin Waje village, Afogo Ward, Kajuru Local Government Area. According to eyewitnesses and local representatives, heavily armed attackers stormed three churches during Sunday services and abducted congregants into nearby forests.

Initial reports indicated that up to 177 people were taken from the Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA) church and two Cherubim and Seraphim churches. Some elderly captives and persons living with disabilities were later released, while a small number reportedly escaped. Even with these releases, the scale of the incident was described by a member of the Kaduna State House of Assembly as unprecedented in the area.

Eyewitness accounts described the attackers as arriving around mid-morning, armed and organized, some wearing black clothing and others dressed in what appeared to be military camouflage. The abductors allegedly split into groups, targeting multiple churches simultaneously — a tactic that suggests planning and familiarity with the terrain.

However, within 24 hours, the Kaduna State Police Command publicly denied that any kidnapping had occurred. The Commissioner of Police dismissed the reports as falsehoods allegedly spread by “conflict entrepreneurs,” challenged the public to produce a list of victims, and warned against what he described as rumor-mongering capable of destabilizing the state. The chairman of Kajuru Local Government echoed this denial, stating that visits to the community revealed no evidence of an attack.

This sharp contradiction — between eyewitness testimony, local legislators, and official security statements — has become a defining feature of Nigeria’s recent security landscape.

CIVIL SOCIETY AND ACCESS RESTRICTIONS

Adding another layer to the controversy, Christian Solidarity Worldwide Nigeria (CSWN) reported that its team attempted to access Kurmin Waje to independently verify events but was stopped by military personnel enforcing standing orders not to allow entry. According to CSWN, the denial of access occurred shortly after a military convoy, reportedly including local government officials, exited the community.

CSWN maintains that attackers arrived on motorcycles and on foot, abducted worshippers from three churches, and forced them into surrounding bush areas. The organization reported that women, children, and elderly individuals were later released, while others escaped during the chaos.

These restrictions on independent verification have deepened suspicions and intensified concerns about transparency, accountability, and information control during security crises.

NIGER STATE: A PATTERN EMERGES

The Kaduna controversy follows a similar episode in Niger State, where authorities initially denied reports of the mass kidnapping of hundreds of Catholic students. That denial was later reversed when the same government publicly received the freed students, raising fundamental questions about why the incident was dismissed in the first place.

Together, these cases point to a recurring pattern: denial first, admission later, often under public pressure.

STRATEGIC AND HUMANITARIAN IMPLICATIONS

From a security perspective, mass kidnappings conducted in coordinated fashion indicate growing operational confidence among armed groups. From a governance standpoint, repeated denials risk doing lasting damage. When communities believe that authorities are concealing attacks, cooperation with security agencies diminishes, intelligence dries up, and trust collapses.

At the humanitarian level, families of abducted persons are left in uncertainty, while displaced and traumatized communities lose faith in institutions meant to protect them. Internationally, credibility gaps weaken Nigeria’s position as it seeks global support on security, counter-terrorism, and humanitarian relief.

WHY THIS MATTERS

Whether ongoing investigations ultimately confirm or disprove the full scale of the Kaduna incident, the damage caused by contradictory official messaging is already real. Security is not only about military response; it is also about truth, credibility, and public confidence.

As Nigeria remains under increased international scrutiny, the handling of security information may prove as consequential as the attacks themselves.

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Kajuru and the Retreat of Truth, by Abdul Mahmud

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Kajuru and the Retreat of Truth, by Abdul Mahmud

A garrisoned state should not wake up to the disappearance of one hundred and seventy-seven citizens and then drift into equivocation. Kaduna State is one of the most securitised states in Nigeria. Barracks dot its landscape. Checkpoints punctuate everywhere. Intelligence formations abound. When such a place loses an entire community to abductors, the first duty of the state is fidelity to the truth. What followed the Kurmin Wali, Kajuru abductions was something else.

The police statement now before the public reads like a reluctant confession. First came acknowledgment of public anxiety. Then came a story of dispute at a security council meeting where unnamed persons questioned a report earlier confirmed by the police. Out of the official contradiction emerged a posture of caution. Words were chosen to calm nerves. Truth was exiled. In the end, after days of denial and deliberate hedging, the truth forced its way back into the light. The abduction did occur. One hundred and seventy seven persons were taken from Kurmin Wali, Kajuru.

This sequence matters. Denial came first. Admission followed under pressure. That retreat from an initial posture of disbelief speaks to a deeper malaise. The Nigerian state has developed a reflex of disowning reality whenever reality proves inconvenient. Violence must be minimised. Numbers must be masked. In that space of obfuscation, truth bleeds. The Commissioner of Police spoke of preventing panic. That explanation sounds reasonable only until one asks who benefits from panic management that suppresses fact. Fear thrives on uncertainty, not on truth. Communities panic more when they sense that officials are withholding information. Families panic when their loved ones vanish and the state responds with ambivalence. The refusal to speak plainly does not calm. It corrodes trust. But, Kaduna State did not tip-toe into this crisis. The abduction of one hundred and seventy-seven people in a single sweep required logistics, planning, intelligence, and time. Such an operation could not unfold without movement across roads and terrain watched by security forces. The question that hangs heavy in the air concerns resistance. How did such a large number get taken without confrontation? How did they disappear without alarm? Silence from security services on these points deepens public suspicion. And rightly so, as officialdom took its time to summon the courage to admit the facts. But a citizen-journalist did so with courage. Steven Kefas broke the story while denial still held sway. He went beyond announcing figures. He published names. Across several platforms, he insisted that the abductions had taken place. In doing so, he discharged a civic duty the state hesitated to perform. The distance between his certainty and official doubt reveals where truth now resides in Nigeria. Often, it lives with citizens who have no uniforms and no podiums.

This inversion of credibility did not begin with Kajuru. Under Tinubu’s rulership, denial has become a directive and governing principle. From economic hardship to security failures, the first response has been to contest lived experience. Inflation figures are contested while inflation empties pockets in real terms. Hunger is debated while households skip meals. Insecurity is reframed while communities bury their dead. Power speaks in abstractions, while hunger is hung like scarlet letters around the necks of citizens. Denial follows a pattern. First, reality is questioned. Then messengers are discredited. After that, a partial admission appears when denial becomes untenable. Finally, the state demands gratitude for conceding what everyone already knows. This cycle erodes moral authority. Governance turns into public relations. Truth becomes negotiable. The Kurmin Wali, Kajuru episode exposes another dimension of this culture. Truth is not merely delayed. Truth is purloined. Facts are lifted from their proper owners, the victims, and handled as contraband. They are released only when convenient. In this trade, conscience has a price. Those who ought to speak plainly calculate optics. Mammon dictates tone. The suffering of ordinary people becomes mere collateral in the war to protect narratives.

The police statement speaks of misinterpretation. That word does heavy lifting. Misinterpretation suggests excess zeal on the part of the audience rather than failure on the part of authority. The public did not misinterpret denial. The public heard denial. When officials say reports are false or disputed, citizens understand the plain meaning. Backtracking cannot erase that memory. There are consequences to this style of governance. Communities stop reporting crimes promptly because they fear disbelief. Citizens turn to social media as primary sources because official channels lack credibility. Rumour flourishes where transparency retreats. Security operations suffer because trust has been squandered. The moral cost is higher. A state that bargains with truth cannot command loyalty. A government that colours facts to suit politics teaches citizens to do the same. Kajuru demands more than belated confirmation. It demands answers. How did the abductors assemble? What routes did they use? Where were the security patrols? What intelligence warnings were missed or ignored? Accountability requires names and timelines. Without these, promises of deployment and patrols sound like ritual incantations.

Nigeria has reached a point where denial no longer buys time. It only buys anger. Citizens are weary of being told that what they see did not happen. They are tired of watching officials negotiate with obvious facts. The abduction of one hundred and seventy seven people is not a problem of narrativisation, it is a human tragedy. The path to truth must begin with candour. Security agencies must speak as guardians, not as image managers. Political leaders must abandon the comfort of denial and face the discomfort of truth. Only then can trust begin to return. Kurmin Wali, Kajuru stands as a grim reminder. When the state retreats from truth, citizens advance toward despair. When denial becomes policy, insecurity becomes the destiny. Nigeria deserves better than a government that admits reality only after reality echoes back, like an empty chamber.

Cheap Food, Broken Farms: How Imports and Policy Are Destroying Nigerian Agriculture

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Cheap food should be good news. But in Nigeria today, falling food prices are quietly destroying farmers, livelihoods, and the future of agriculture.

In this episode of The Other Side, hosted by Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum, we examine a troubling paradox at the heart of Nigeria’s economy: why lower food prices — driven largely by massive imports of rice, maize, and grains — are pushing local farmers into debt, abandonment of farms, and in some cases, outright criminalisation.

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy recently announced that the government would move to support farmers after food prices fell below production costs in many parts of the country. On the surface, the claim sounds reassuring. But on the ground, the reality is far more disturbing.

Across farming communities, crops are being left unharvested because the cost of harvesting now exceeds what farmers can earn at the market. During the recent harvest season, maize that sold for about ₦65,000 per 100kg bag last year collapsed to as low as ₦18,000 in parts of the Abuja axis. Meanwhile, the cost of inputs — fertiliser, seeds, herbicides, labour — has continued to rise sharply.

A bag of fertiliser that once sold for ₦38,000 now goes for between ₦50,000 and ₦60,000. For many farmers, even a good harvest no longer guarantees the recovery of costs. In one heartbreaking case highlighted in this episode, a farmer who cultivated 100 hectares of rice abandoned his entire field after realising that harvesting alone would cost more than the value of the crop at prevailing market prices.

This crisis is not only economic — it is social. Young farmers who borrowed money to farm, following practices that worked in previous years, are now unable to repay loans. Some have been arrested. Others have fled their villages, unable to face lenders. Entire rural communities are being hollowed out, even as government officials celebrate cheaper food in urban markets.

Rimamnde Shawulu situates this crisis within a broader policy failure. While Nigeria relies heavily on food imports, countries like the United States openly subsidise agriculture to stabilise prices, protect farmers, and preserve rural employment. In some historical cases, governments even bought excess produce to maintain price stability — not because markets failed, but because food security was considered too important to leave to chance.

Former Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi, after touring farms in Ekiti State, publicly advised Nigeria to create an enabling environment for farmers through deliberate policy choices: subsidies, infrastructure, regulation, and incentives. As he noted, agriculture anywhere in the world does not survive without state support.

Yet in Nigeria, farming remains largely peasant-based, unsupported, and exposed to market shocks. The result is predictable: young people are discouraged from entering agriculture, investment is destroyed, and food security becomes increasingly fragile.

This episode also raises urgent questions for the Tinubu administration. Why have thousands of commissioned tractors not been released to farming cooperatives? Why are fertilisers still unaffordable at the start of the planting season? Why do subsidies often end up with middlemen rather than real farmers? And why does government intervention arrive late, after the rains have already begun?

The warning is clear. If Nigeria continues to depend on imports while neglecting local producers, jobs will be exported to other countries, rural economies will collapse, and future food shortages will become inevitable.

The Other Side goes beyond headlines to expose the structural contradictions shaping Nigeria’s governance, economy, and democracy. This episode is essential viewing for policymakers, farmers, analysts, and citizens concerned about food security, employment, and national stability.

If you care about where Nigeria is headed — and what must change — this conversation matters.

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Nigeria Should Rebuild Lives at Home, Not Lobby Washington

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Nigeria is facing a crisis of trust—both at home and abroad. Yet rather than confront this crisis through transparency and accountability, the Federal Government has chosen a different path: spending $9 million lobbying Washington to counter claims that Christians are being targeted and killed because of their faith.

This decision, revealed through filings under the United States Foreign Agents Registration Act, raises serious questions about priorities. At a time when communities across Plateau, Benue, Southern Kaduna, Nasarawa, and parts of the North-East remain devastated by violence, displacement, and loss, billions of naira were allocated not to rebuilding homes or resettling victims, but to managing Nigeria’s international image.

The government’s central argument is denial. Yet denial without evidence convinces no one. There has been no comprehensive national investigation, no public hearings by the National Assembly, and no transparent, independently verified statistics to rebut claims of religiously targeted violence. This vacuum has been filled by international watchdogs, survivor testimonies, and open-source documentation.

In today’s world, truth is increasingly difficult to suppress. Information travels faster than press releases, and credibility is earned through action, not contracts with foreign lobbyists.

Nigeria did not need $9 million to defend itself abroad. It needed a fraction of that amount to establish a credible, multi-faith investigative process at home—and to begin rebuilding shattered communities.

A government that prioritises explanation over restoration risks being seen not as misunderstood, but as complicit through inaction. Nigeria’s path forward lies not in Washington boardrooms, but in the villages and towns where lives must be rebuilt and trust restored.

Bandits Killings in Niger and Zamfara as Military Raids and Global Security Shocks Escalate

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Bandits Killings in Niger and Zamfara as Military Raids and Global Security Shocks Escalate

Nigeria’s security landscape remains deeply volatile as armed banditry, kidnappings, and insurgent violence persist across multiple regions, even as security forces intensify operations. In this edition of Security Update, hosted by Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum, we provide a verified, region-by-region breakdown of last week’s most critical security developments in Nigeria, Africa, and the global arena, with implications for national stability and regional security.

Nigeria: Escalating Rural Violence and Military Response

We begin in Niger State, where armed bandits attacked Damala village in Borgu Local Government Area, killing four residents. The attackers struck late at night, firing indiscriminately and forcing villagers to flee into surrounding forests. No immediate security response was reported during the raid, allowing the gunmen to escape before dawn. This attack follows a recent mass-casualty assault on Kaswandaji Market along the same axis, highlighting the persistent entrenchment of armed groups in North-Central Nigeria. Analysts warn that the vast terrain and overstretched forces raise serious concerns about the sustainability of current security deployments.

In Kogi State, joint police and military units launched a large-scale, air-supported operation targeting bandit camps across forested areas. Security agencies confirmed that multiple hideouts were destroyed and several suspects neutralized, though official casualty figures were not disclosed. Kogi has increasingly emerged as a strategic corridor linking armed groups operating across Niger, Kwara, Ondo, and Edo States, marking a shift toward intelligence-driven, inter-agency cooperation. However, experts caution that such offensives often trigger reprisals against civilian communities suspected of collaborating with security forces.

In Kaduna State, police arrested suspected bandits in Chikun Local Government Area and recovered 65 stolen cattle following a series of livestock raids. While no fatalities were reported, cattle rustling remains a major financial lifeline for armed groups and a significant driver of rural conflict. Authorities say investigations are ongoing to dismantle wider criminal networks, even as livestock-related violence continues to fuel retaliatory attacks across Kaduna and neighboring states.

In the Middle Belt, Nigerian troops raided kidnappers’ hideouts in Plateau State, killing several suspects and recovering weapons. The camps were reportedly used to detain abducted victims. The operation followed actionable intelligence amid a surge in kidnappings targeting rural roads and farming communities. While security officials say operations will continue, criminal groups continue to exploit forested terrain to evade capture.

In Zamfara State, bandits attacked Ferenruwa village in Maru Local Government Area, killing an Assistant Superintendent of Police and five civilians, while abducting several villagers. The killing of senior security personnel underscores the growing boldness of armed groups. Zamfara remains one of Nigeria’s most violent states, plagued by banditry, kidnappings, and attacks on communities. The crisis is further complicated by illegal gold mining, often referred to as “blood gold,” which analysts say helps finance armed groups and fuels insecurity.

Africa: Insurgency and Political Repression

Beyond Nigeria, Somali forces, supported by international partners, killed 29 Al-Shabaab fighters in the Middle Shabelle region. Vehicles and weapons were destroyed, disrupting planned attacks on civilians. While the operation was a tactical success, analysts warn that Al-Shabaab frequently regroups after such losses.

In Tanzania, human rights groups and the United Nations allege that security forces may have killed large numbers of civilians following the disputed 2025 elections, with incidents reported in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Arusha. The government insists it acted to restore order, while opposition figures accuse authorities of extrajudicial killings—reflecting a broader trend of political repression in parts of East Africa.

Global: Escalation and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

Globally, Russia launched hypersonic missiles at targets near western Ukraine, close to NATO borders, marking a dangerous escalation in the ongoing war. Civilian casualties were reported. In Iran, protests that began over economic hardship have evolved into calls for an end to clerical rule, with reports of thousands killed. Meanwhile, extremist sabotage of power cables plunged 100,000 people in Berlin into darkness, exposing critical infrastructure vulnerabilities in Europe.

Across Nigeria, Africa, and the world, these developments show how modern security threats are increasingly interconnected—linking rural banditry, insurgency, political repression, and infrastructure sabotage.

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Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis: 141 Million Poor, Failing Reforms, and the Food Security Time Bomb

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Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis: 141 Million Poor, Failing Reforms, and the Food Security Time Bomb

They say when evil falls, it falls like rain. Today, that proverb feels painfully accurate for Nigeria. kidnappings, terrorism, and violent crime, a deeper and more dangerous crisis is unfolding — one defined by hunger, collapsing rural livelihoods, and a rapid slide into mass poverty.

In this episode of The Other Side, Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum examines the economic and security dynamics pushing Nigeria toward a food and poverty emergency. Recent reports cited by Vanguard reveal a sobering projection: no fewer than 141 million Nigerians are expected to live in poverty this year. This figure is drawn from the Economic Outlook 2026 published by PricewaterhouseCoopers, which warns that more than 62 percent of Nigeria’s population may fall below the poverty line as macroeconomic “reforms” take hold without adequate social or productive safeguards.

Economists quoted in the report describe the situation as severe and worsening — a reality driven not only by inflation and policy adjustment shocks, but by a breakdown in the country’s productive base, particularly agriculture. The crisis is visible on the ground. In Kaduna State alone, over 2,000 farmers recorded losses estimated at ₦10.16 billion during the 2025 farming season.

These farmers, drawn from all three senatorial districts, were hit by a nationwide crash in maize prices while the cost of fertilizers, seeds, and other inputs continued to rise sharply. Many are now appealing to the federal government and the Central Bank for urgent intervention. Similar patterns are playing out elsewhere. Cassava farmers in Atani and surrounding communities in Ogbaru Local Government Area suffered devastating post-harvest losses due to flooding, leaving many unable to recover financially.

According to BusinessDay, more than 1,356 farmers have been killed in the last five years due to persistent insecurity — a figure widely considered conservative given the scale of rural violence and unreported kidnappings.

In states such as Benue State and Taraba State, entire farming communities have been displaced for years. In some areas, farmers can only access their land after paying protection money to bandits. In others, those who attempt to harvest their crops are attacked or killed. The result is a shrinking agricultural workforce and abandoned farmlands across Nigeria’s food-producing belts.

Yet insecurity is only half the story. Government policy has compounded the crisis. The decision to license large-scale importation of rice, maize, and beans has collapsed local prices, leaving farmers unable to sell their produce at sustainable rates. Traders who once exported Nigerian beans can no longer do so. Domestic produce is now selling below market value, making it impossible for farmers to reinvest in the next planting season. This creates a dangerous cycle: low prices discourage farming; insecurity prevents access to land; rising input costs block recovery; and cheap imports undermine local production.

As farmers exit agriculture, unemployment rises, especially among young people who would otherwise remain in rural communities. Looking ahead, Nigeria faces a looming twin crisis — worsening unemployment and severe food shortages. If farmers cannot return to their fields, and if government lacks the resources to sustain imports indefinitely, food availability will decline sharply. Even where imports continue, affordability will remain out of reach for millions displaced by violence or trapped in urban slums.

In this episode, The Other Side asks critical questions: Are Nigeria’s economic reforms structured to protect the productive sector? Why does government prioritise food importation over supporting domestic farmers? Should Nigeria adopt production-focused subsidies — similar to policies in the United States — by buying farm produce at market value instead of flooding the market with cheap imports?

Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum challenges policymakers, analysts, and citizens to rethink Nigeria’s economic trajectory. Without security in rural areas and deliberate investment in local production, reforms risk deepening poverty rather than reversing it.

What is your assessment of the government’s approach? Can Nigeria reverse this trend before hunger and unemployment spiral further out of control? Subscribe for weekly insights on Nigeria’s politics and democracy.

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Iran’s Moment of Reckoning: Why This Uprising Is Different

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Iran’s Moment of Reckoning: Why This Uprising Is Different

For more than four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has survived sanctions, wars, and repeated waves of protest. Yet today, for the first time since 1979, its survival is being questioned not only by dissidents abroad, but by millions on the streets at home.

What began as demonstrations over economic hardship—currency collapse, water shortages, and declining living standards—has evolved into a nationwide movement demanding the end of clerical rule. Reports suggest unrest in over 100 cities, accompanied by strikes, shop closures, and a near-total internet blackout imposed by the state.

The government’s response follows a familiar authoritarian script: digital repression, mass arrests, and the deployment of security forces. However, what distinguishes this moment is Iran’s unprecedented geopolitical isolation. Long-standing regional allies and proxy networks that once provided strategic depth have been significantly weakened, leaving the regime without external buffers.

History shows that authoritarian systems rarely fall solely because of protests; they collapse when internal cohesion fractures. While no verified mass defections have yet occurred, growing reports of reluctance among security personnel to confront protesters raise uncomfortable questions for Tehran.

Whether this crisis ends in repression, reform, or regime collapse remains uncertain. What is clear is that Iran has entered its most consequential political moment in nearly half a century—one whose outcome will reshape the Middle East and reverberate far beyond its borders.

— The Other Side, Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum

 

30 Killed in Niger, Soldiers Ambushed in Borno as Banditry Engulfs Nigeria – Weekly Security Update

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30 Killed in Niger, Soldiers Ambushed in Borno as Banditry Engulfs Nigeria – Weekly Security Update

Nigeria entered the new year amid sustained insecurity across multiple regions, with coordinated attacks, mass killings, military ambushes, and kidnappings recorded between late December and the first week of January. The incidents underscore persistent weaknesses in rural security and the expanding geographical spread of armed violence.

In Kaduna State, bandits attacked a community in Lere Local Government Area on December 29, killing at least three residents and abducting three others during a late-night raid. Local sources reported that the attackers operated for several hours before withdrawing. Community leaders in southern Kaduna say more than 160 villages in the area have been affected by years of banditry and forced displacement.

Security authorities later announced the arrest of 39 suspects, said to have relocated from forest reserves in Sokoto State into neighbouring areas. Officials described the arrests as a preventive action to curb spillover by armed groups displaced by recent counterterrorism operations in the northwest.

In Kogi State, gunmen attacked the Omi-Arab community in Yagba West Local Government Area on December 31. Residents reported gunfire and overnight abductions. While casualties were not immediately confirmed, the incident adds to a growing pattern of kidnappings along the Yagba axis, an area increasingly described by security sources as an emerging corridor for extremist infiltration.

The deadliest attack of the period occurred in Niger State, where gunmen stormed Kaswan Daji Market in Borgu Local Government Area on January 4. Police confirmed that at least 30 people were killed, with market stalls and homes set ablaze. Local residents said some abducted persons may include schoolgirls previously released after negotiations. Federal authorities ordered intensified manhunts following the attack, which ranks among the most severe in the state in recent months.

In the northeast, a Nigerian military convoy travelling from Maiduguri to Damasak was ambushed in Mobbar Local Government Area of Borno State after striking a landmine. At least nine soldiers were reported killed, while five others sustained serious injuries. Militants reportedly opened fire after the explosion, destroying armoured vehicles. The attack points to renewed insurgent capability despite ongoing military operations in the region.

Elsewhere, joint security operations across Plateau, Zamfara, Kogi, and Borno States reportedly led to the neutralisation of suspected terrorists, the rescue of abducted victims, and the arrest of logistics suppliers. In Adamawa State, explosive devices were recovered without casualties, while Bayelsa State recorded river piracy incidents that left at least two passengers dead along the Nun River. In Oyo State, mob violence in Ibadan resulted in the lynching of three individuals following false accusations of theft, highlighting the growing risks of vigilantism.

Beyond Nigeria, insecurity persisted across parts of Africa. In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, suspected Allied Democratic Forces fighters killed at least 15 civilians in Ituri Province. In Sudan’s Darfur region, renewed militia attacks reportedly claimed more than 100 civilian lives in one week, exacerbating displacement and food shortages. A migrant boat capsized off the coast of The Gambia, leaving about 40 people feared dead or missing.

Globally, the Russia-Ukraine war continued into the new year with renewed strikes and counter-claims of drone attacks, while Iran witnessed widespread protests across more than 100 cities, raising questions about internal stability. Developments in Venezuela also drew international attention amid escalating legal and diplomatic tensions.

Security analysts note a recurring pattern across many of these incidents: rural communities remain the most exposed, with armed groups exploiting weak state presence, economic hardship, and porous terrain. As the year begins, the scale and spread of violence point to a complex security environment requiring sustained, coordinated responses at both national and regional levels.

Who Changed Nigeria’s Tax Laws? Inside the Gazette Scandal

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Who Changed Nigeria’s Tax Laws? Inside the Gazette Scandal

What happens when the laws a government is enforcing are not the same laws its parliament approved?

In this episode of The Other Side, Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum examines a growing constitutional controversy surrounding Nigeria’s new tax regime. Allegations have emerged that the tax laws currently being implemented differ from the versions passed by the National Assembly, raising profound questions about legality, due process, and democratic accountability.

The issue came to public attention after a member of the House of Representatives alleged that the Acts gazetted and circulated by the executive arm contain provisions that were not approved by lawmakers. Rather than a transparent floor debate, the matter was referred to a committee that failed to conclude its work before parliamentary recess—leaving Nigerians governed by laws whose authenticity remains in dispute.

This episode breaks down how laws are meant to move from parliament to implementation: passage by both chambers, transmission, presidential assent, and official gazetting. Each step exists to prevent precisely this kind of ambiguity. When that chain is compromised, the rule of law itself is threatened.

Special focus is placed on the role of the Government Printer and tax authorities, and whether due diligence was followed before enforcement began. If laws were altered after assent, then implementation may be unconstitutional, with far-reaching implications for revenue collection, compliance, and investor confidence.

Beyond tax policy, this discussion exposes a deeper governance problem—weak institutional accountability and blurred lines of authority. If laws can change without parliamentary approval, then democratic oversight is reduced to a formality.

This episode is essential viewing for policymakers, lawyers, civil society, and citizens concerned about constitutional order and the future of Nigeria’s democracy.

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