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ISWAP Ambushes Troops in Borno, Bandits Overrun Police Stations in Zamfara

Rimamnde Shawulu
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ISWAP Ambushes Troops in Borno, Bandits Overrun Police Stations in Zamfara

Over the past week alone, more than 80 people were killed across Nigeria, with Zamfara, Borno, Kaduna, and Niger States emerging as the worst-affected flashpoints. The dominant threats remain banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping for ransom, with armed groups increasingly targeting civilians, markets, and security formations.

#NigeriaKillingsTracker#SahelConflictMonitor#LakeChadInsurgency#NigeriaConflictWatch#AfricaCrisisBrief#ElectionSecurityNigeria#WeeklySecurityBrief

In Borno State, insurgents linked to ISWAP and Boko Haram ambushed a Nigerian military patrol near Marte on January 26. The attack involved small arms and explosives during a routine movement. At least seven soldiers were killed, with military equipment damaged. Reinforcements and air surveillance were deployed immediately, underscoring the persistence of insurgent operations along rural and border corridors. The Borno State Government has repeatedly warned of a resurgence of terrorist activity in the northeast.

In Niger State, gunmen attacked a rural market in Shiroro Local Government Area on January 27, opening fire on traders and looting goods. Eighteen civilians were killed, with security forces arriving after the attackers had withdrawn. Markets along this axis have become repeated targets, serving both as supply points and kidnapping hubs for armed groups whose operations now stretch toward Kwara and Oyo States.

Kaduna State recorded another major kidnapping incident along the Birnin Gwari axis on January 28, where bandits abducted at least 35 residents from a farming settlement. Casualty figures remain unclear. Joint military and police search operations were launched, but the area’s forests—long known to host jihadist and criminal groups—remain a persistent threat corridor.

In Zamfara State, armed bandits overran a rural police station in Zurmi LGA, killing four police officers and looting weapons. The state continues to function as a major bandit stronghold, with armed groups reportedly protecting and exploiting illegal gold mining sites. Separate military airstrikes targeted known bandit camps on January 30, killing an unspecified number of fighters, followed by ground sweeps.

Closer to the Federal Capital Territory, kidnappings along the Abuja–Lokoja highway saw gunmen abduct 12 passengers after blocking traffic. Kogi State has increasingly become a transit and operational zone for these groups, despite recent claims of camp destruction around Kabba.

In the Lake Chad region, insurgents attacked a naval patrol, killing three naval personnel, highlighting ongoing insecurity on inland waterways once believed to be economically controlled by insurgent groups through fishing and trade.

Other incidents include:

* Nasarawa State: Six miners killed in an attack on an illegal mining site.

* Ondo State: Political violence in Akoko claimed three lives, raising early concerns about the security environment ahead of the 2027 elections.

Africa: Expanding Conflict Zones

Across Africa, over 110 people were killed outside Nigeria within the same period.

  1. In Somalia, government forces killed 30 Al-Shabaab fighters during raids, a recurring pattern in the long-running conflict involving Al-Shabaab.
  2. In Sudan, clashes involving the RSF left over 50 civilians dead, worsening an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis.
  3. Northwest Cameroon saw separatists kill 12 civilians in Anglophone areas.
  4. In Mali, JNIM continued to disrupt fuel supplies to Bamako, threatening economic collapse.
  5. In Mozambique, ISIS-linked militants killed seven soldiers in an IED attack, with spillover violence reported toward Congo.

Global: Middle East and Rising Uncertainty

Globally, the Hamas–Israel conflict remains volatile. Israeli airstrikes killed at least 12 people following rocket attacks, despite intermittent ceasefire claims involving Hamas and Israel.

In Iran, protests continue amid conflicting death toll claims—ranging from 5,000 to as high as 60,000 fatalities—raising fears of wider regional escalation involving Iran and global powers.

Nigeria faces a high risk of further mass attacks, kidnappings, and ambushes, while conflicts across the Sahel and Middle East show signs of intensification. History suggests that partial military pressure without sustained dismantling of terrorist networks often strengthens them, a lesson Nigeria may be relearning.

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Strongmen Don’t Build Nations

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Strongmen Don’t Build Nations

Across Africa, a familiar argument is making a comeback. It says our problem is not corruption, weak institutions, or poor governance, but leadership turnover. According to this view, Africa needs leaders who stay longer in power—like Singapore’s founding generation or China’s political elite—to deliver development.

It is an attractive argument. It sounds pragmatic. It promises stability. But it is also deeply misleading.

The central problem facing African states, Nigeria included, is not the length of leadership. It is the quality of governance and the weakness of institutions. History, evidence, and lived experience all point in the same direction: countries develop when institutions are strong, not when individuals stay in power indefinitely.

Development is not built by personalities. No individual, no matter how gifted, can be everywhere at once. What sustains growth are rules that outlive rulers—independent courts, credible elections, transparent budgets, accountable security agencies, and enforceable laws. Where these institutions exist, progress is resilient. Where they do not, any gains achieved by a long-serving leader are fragile and easily reversed.

Long-term rule also carries predictable risks. Power that is held too long tends to personalize the state. Accountability weakens. Corruption grows. Succession becomes uncertain. Dissent is suppressed, not because it is dangerous, but because it is inconvenient. Over time, the state becomes captured by networks whose primary interest is self-preservation, not national progress.

Africa does not lack examples. From Central Africa to the Horn, long-serving leaders have presided over stagnation, elite capture, and security decline. Some began as reformers. Many ended as obstacles to reform. Stability achieved through fear or patronage rarely survives transition.

Supporters of long tenure often cite exceptional cases like Singapore, while ignoring the many cases where decades in power produced neither prosperity nor cohesion. Exceptional cases are not templates. They are outliers.

Europe’s development did not emerge from permanent rulers or unchecked monarchies. It accelerated when power became constrained—when citizens gained a say over taxation, budgets, and leadership; when courts became independent; when leaders could be removed without violence. Innovation flourished where pluralism and accountability were protected.

Nigeria’s challenge is therefore not that leaders leave too soon, but that institutions are too weak to compel performance while leaders are in office. Weak elections do not justify permanent rulers. They demand reform: electoral credibility, judicial independence, open procurement, and equal application of the law.

Modernization is not a product of staying long in office. It is a product of rules staying strong after rulers leave.

Africa does not need stronger men. It needs stronger systems. It does not need leaders who rule forever. It needs institutions that work every day, for everyone.

177 abducted in Kaduna churches. Soldiers killed in Zamfara. Cyber attacks rising. Nigeria’s security situation remains volatile.

Rimamnde Shawulu
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177 abducted in Kaduna churches. Soldiers killed in Zamfara. Cyber attacks rising. Nigeria’s security situation remains volatile.

Nigeria’s security situation remained volatile over the past week, with fresh developments across multiple fronts — mass kidnappings, deadly ambushes, cyber insecurity, and a deepening humanitarian crisis in the North-East. The most consequential incident remains the mass abduction in Kaduna State, where approximately 177 worshippers were kidnapped during Sunday services at three churches, including ECWA and Cherubim and Seraphim congregations. #WeeklySecurityBrief#NigeriaConflictWatch#KadunaKidnappings#ZamfaraAmbush#AfricaCounterTerrorism#CyberSecurityAfrica#HumanitarianCrisisNE#DroneWarfareAfrica#InsurgencyTrends#SecurityIntelligence
The incident sparked national controversy after initial denials by state authorities and the police, contradicting accounts from affected churches, civil society groups, and a member of the Kaduna State House of Assembly representing the area.
Civil society organization Christian Solidarity Worldwide Nigeria attempted an independent verification mission but reported being turned back by security personnel guarding the area, raising further questions about transparency, access, and accountability in conflict reporting. The episode underscores a recurring pattern in Nigeria’s security management: delayed acknowledgment, conflicting official narratives, and reactive communication after public pressure.

In the North-West, joint operations involving the Nigerian military and local vigilantes recorded tactical successes in parts of Kebbi and Zamfara States, where two militants were killed and hostages freed from a known bandit hideout. However, these gains were offset by losses elsewhere. In Zamfara State, five soldiers and one police officer were killed after terrorist elements ambushed security forces during ongoing clearance operations.
Ambushes have increasingly become a defining feature of Nigeria’s counterinsurgency and counter-banditry campaigns, highlighting persistent intelligence gaps, terrain challenges, and the adaptability of armed groups.
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When Defection Turns Into Defeat

Rimamnde Shawulu
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When Defection Turns Into Defeat

Politics is often mistaken for proximity to power. In reality, it is about leverage. Nigeria’s unfolding wave of defections from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) exposes this misunderstanding with brutal clarity.

Ahead of the 2027 elections, governors across key regions have abandoned the PDP in large numbers. The South-South, once the party’s strongest stronghold, now has no PDP governor. In the South-East, only Abia State remains outside APC control. The North-Central has followed a similar path. On paper, the APC looks invincible. In practice, many of the defectors may have walked into a political trap.

The calculation behind these defections was simple and cynical. Many believed that future elections would be tightly managed from the centre, and that survival depended on early alignment with federal power. Defection was framed as insurance. What is now becoming clear is that this insurance policy may not pay out.

Signals from within the APC suggest that there are no guarantees of automatic tickets for defectors. Party primaries remain the battleground, and those primaries will be crowded with long-standing party loyalists who see the newcomers not as allies but as competitors. Incumbency alone is no shield in a party where internal power structures predate recent arrivals.

The deeper mistake lies in what these governors surrendered by defecting. Power respects power; it does not respect weakness. Negotiation is only possible when there is something to negotiate with. By abandoning the PDP wholesale instead of sustaining it as a viable alternative, these governors destroyed the very platform that could have given them leverage.

A simple analogy explains the problem. When a man demolishes his own house and moves into another man’s mansion because the roof no longer leaks, he ceases to be a landlord. He becomes a tenant. Tenants do not dictate terms. They accept conditions. By defecting en masse, these governors turned themselves from power brokers into political dependents.

Their fate now rests almost entirely in the hands of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC hierarchy. If balance must be struck between long-standing party loyalists and new entrants, some will inevitably be sacrificed. For those denied tickets, the doors will already be closed elsewhere. It will be too late to return, and there may be no credible platform left to run on.

Beyond individual careers, the implications for Nigeria’s democracy are troubling. A system without a strong opposition is not competitive; it is fragile. Opposition parties are not ornaments of democracy. They are its insurance against excess, impunity, and complacency. When elite defection replaces electoral contestation, accountability erodes.

The question Nigerians must now confront is not simply whether these governors made the right personal choice. It is whether the country can afford a political culture where power is hoarded at the centre and opposition is dismantled by fear rather than defeated at the polls.

In politics, safety purchased at the cost of leverage is rarely safety at all. More often, it is defeat postponed.

Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum hosts The Other Side.

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Making Peace With Undefeated Bandits Is Not Peace—It Is Capitulation, By Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Making Peace With Undefeated Bandits Is Not Peace—It Is Capitulation, By Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum

Across Nigeria’s North-West and parts of the North-Central, a dangerous idea has quietly taken root: that peace can be bought by negotiating with armed bandits who have not been defeated. Exhausted communities and desperate local authorities have embraced ceasefires, dialogue, and informal agreements with violent groups in the hope that insecurity will subside. The evidence, however, suggests the opposite. What is being presented as peace-building is, in reality, strategic capitulation.

Recent warnings by the Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa, underscore a hard truth the country has been reluctant to confront. Negotiating with bandits does not bring safety. It rewards violence. In several local government areas in Katsina, Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto states, armed groups attend “peace meetings” openly carrying weapons, arrive on motorcycles, and return to forest sanctuaries unchanged. Occasionally, a few abductees are released or farmers are allowed temporary access to their land. These gestures are mistaken for goodwill. They are not.

Empirical patterns from these states show that violence rarely ends after such agreements. At best, attacks decline briefly. Then the armed groups regroup, rearm, recruit, and resume violence—often with greater intensity. What communities experience is not reconciliation but a strategic pause that benefits criminals.

The deeper problem is one of sovereignty. When local authorities negotiate with armed non-state actors who retain their weapons, the state implicitly admits it no longer controls those territories. This normalizes a parallel system of authority in which criminals dictate terms. Political science is unambiguous on this point: a state that loses monopoly over the legitimate use of force is a state in recession, edging toward failure.

There are moral consequences as well. Victims watch their attackers walk free. Ransoms are paid repeatedly. Justice is absent. Trust in government collapses. In response, communities arm themselves, vigilante groups emerge, and ethnic and religious polarization deepens. What begins as a security shortcut becomes a social breakdown.

Even more troubling is the convergence between criminal banditry and jihadist networks. Repeated accommodation creates permissive environments for extremist organizations—ISWAP, ISIS-aligned groups, and Sahelian jihadists—to embed themselves in local conflicts, recruit youth, and expand operational reach. History from Afghanistan, Syria, and the Sahel shows that peace processes succeed only after armed groups are decisively weakened. Negotiations without defeat reward escalation.

Peace, therefore, must be understood as a sequence, not an event. It begins with coercive containment: denying armed groups territorial sanctuaries, cutting supply chains, dominating forests and ungoverned spaces, and restoring civil authority. Negotiation can only follow disarmament, accountability, and the reassertion of state power.

Making peace with undefeated bandits is not pragmatism. It is surrender by another name. And Nigeria cannot afford it.

Nigeria’s Fourth Republic : What Is Working and What is not, Rep. Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Nigeria’s Fourth Republic : What Is Working and What is not, Rep. Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje

Nigeria Fourth Republic,
Nigerian Democracy Analysis,
What Is Working in Nigeria,
What Is Failing in Nigeria,
National Assembly Nigeria,
Hon Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje,
Nigeria Governance Crisis,
Post-1999 Nigerian Politics,
Legislative Performance Nigeria,
Nigeria Political Reform Debate

 

Did you know that in Mexico, an air conditioner is called a politician? When asked why, they said “because it makes a lot of noise but doesn’t work very well”.
After three decades of military interventions and dominance, a convergence of anti military forces, pro democracy civil society organizations, determined Nigerian citizens and international pressure groups, would ensure that the dream of a democratic Nigeria was actualized to great hope and expectations of new found freedoms and all the celebrated gains of self rule. This achievement was probably the most consequential democratic experiment of the global south.
A period of great global power peace gave rise to the growth of globalism and multi-lateralism which fostered cooperation and strengthened the Anglo-American consensus of global governance; Nigeria would be a beneficiary of that new world order.
Over two decades, the world has witnessed a stealth period of democratic recession which to many was almost imperceptible. Democratic principles were silently being remodified to the point where a critical re-examination is required as the underpinnings of our views on democratic institutions, rules and ethos are being redefined most disruptively. The thought provoking speech by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada at the world economic forum in Davos yesterday was the big bang that seems to have shaken us all out of our reverie and caused us to seriously interrogate what we knew democracy to be as well as to honestly assess our preparedness for the emerging new world order.
Ladies and gentlemen, I am truly honored to be part of the assemblage of eminent individuals invited to interrogate the health of our democratic experiment, I shall speak to the growing gaps

between politics and governance today; which has become the defining challenge of Nigeria’s fourth republic. Remaining optimistic, I shall try to challenge the dooms day quote by John Quincy Adams; the 2nd President of the United States of America’ which says “Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself,”
John F. Kennedy; the 35th President of the United States of America, says and I quote, ‘’Democracy is never a final achievement, it’s a call to an untiring effort’’.
We are confronted with questionable electoral integrity, the proliferation of illiberal democracies and constitutional overreach. In the African sub-region, the increasing incidence and popularity of military coups as well as the security, stability and prosperity of non-democratic countries such as China, Singapore and United Arab Emirates increase our quandary. The superior qualities of democracy are under scrutiny. Will our untiring efforts according to JFK challenge the death prophecy according to John Adams??
Statistics from the institute for democracy and electoral assistance state that globally 58% of adults are dissatisfied with democracy. In Nigeria a significant and growing number (over 70%) are dissatisfied with how democracy actually functions in the country, seeing it as flawed or poorly implemented, and many believing elections don’t reflect their views or remove bad leaders.
Yes, Nigerians vote but accountability remains weak, institutions are not rules based, public confidence in leadership is declining and voter turnout has steadily dropped, reflecting growing political disillusionment. Voter turn out in Nigeria’s Presidential elections have declined sharply over recent years; from 52% in 1999, to 46% in 2015, and then 35% in 2019, to a dismal 26.7% in 2023 reflecting continued disengagement from the electoral process.
NOW UNTO THE GOOD NEWS
Access to quality education, healthcare, housing and social protection remains uneven. Nigeria has one of the highest numbers of out-of-school children globally, estimated at over 18 million. Health indicators lag behind peer countries. Social policies often react to crises rather than

preventing them. Nigeria’s population is young, energetic and ambitious, yet grossly underutilized, When human potential is wasted, democratic hope weakens, brain drain and limited opportunities threaten long term productivity. However, for the 4th Republic it is not all gloom and doom, there are some high points;
 In August 2001, GSM technology was formally introduced to Nigeria. ICT impacted our socio-political and economic existence. As of 2024, there were two hundred and twenty two million telephone subscribers, the beginning of the democratization of information and new avenues for wealth creation, our democracy became more accountable by expanding citizens opportunities to freedom of interrogation, expression and association. Mobilization and organization for citizens engagement to oppressive government policies became more effective and impactful, I can’t think of a better example than the end SARS protest. As we see a decline in activities of civil society organizations, citizen advocacy is on the rise and exposing human right abuses has never been easier. People like Martins Otse also known as Very Darkman and Precious Oruche also known as mama Pee lead the charge in that area. Economically, digital content creators have brought immense value to the Nigerian economy; creating millions of jobs, exporting the nation’s culture globally, and providing new avenues for socio-economic expression. ICT is undoubtedly one of the most disruptively impactful achievements of 4th Republic.

 The creative industry in Nigeria’s 4th Republic which encompasses music, films, the art, fashion and food, has grown from a largely informal sector to the country’s second largest employer of labour after agriculture. Nigerian music artistes have become international house hold names. Nigerian fashion has appeared on major international run ways. Publishing authors such as Chimmanda Adichie are globally acclaimed. So also are the culinary arts, visual arts and the growing video game sector. In 2023 alone, motion pictures, sound recording, and music production contributed approximately $1.73 billion to the Nigeria Economy

An unbroken chain of transfer of democratic power through 8 cycles of elections from one ruling political party the PDP, to a previously opposition coalition party APC without interruptions by coups or extra-judicial changes should be cheery news. It should be an indication that our democracy is alive and well. But is it? Unfortunately, democracy is simply not only the ballot box; democracy is not validated by longevity alone, it is validated by outcomes.
Our democratic experiment raises its own credibility questions. The independence of the umpire INEC, the shrinking of the political space, the heightened intolerance of any viable opposition and the decline of multi party political systems. There are allegations that Nigeria dances dangerously on the brink of becoming a one party state. The only challenge to that rests on the belief that our diversity will prove such attempted monolithic control near impossible. We wait and see.
WHAT IS NOT WORKING

The governability of our democracy is exposing huge gaps. To understand our strength and failures we must first query what is elections, what is governance and why confusing the two has become costly. Elections is about winning power, it is a means to an end, while governance is about using power responsibly and effectively. Governance is long term planning, it is institutional defence and growth, it is policy formation and implementation; it is service delivery, it is accountability.
Elections are episodic, governance is continuous. Elections ask who should lead, governance answers how society should be run. Elections creates authority, governance creates outcomes. The paradox of the fourth Republic is that while politics is vibrant, democracy is fragile. Democracy simply appears unable to solve the country’s major problems of rising widespread insecurity and the eradication of multi-dimensional poverty which seems to have overwhelmed the leadership of the country. I will highlight;

Amidst declining public finance accountability and profligacy amongst the political class, According to World Bank reports of 2025, over 75% of Nigerians live below the United Nations (UN) poverty threshold of $2 per day; translating to over 133 million people who are said to be living in multi-dimensional poverty; a steep rise from 87 million in 2018 with a new Price Water Cooper report projecting 141 million people by the end of 2026.
More disturbing statistics from the NDIC confirmed by the Minister of Finance; Mr. Wale Edun states that only 2% of the 70 million bank account holders have more than ₦500,000 five hundred thousand naira ($350) or above in their account. Democracy has clearly not translated to economic security.
The quest for nation building and cohesion has proven to be a major challenge with our fault lines magnified by our socio-economic disparities. This polarization with its ethnic and religious leanings obviously predate the 4th Republic but has been exacerbated over time by vicious politics and entrenched inequalities, partisan traditional media, distrust in institutions and technological tools like social media and Artificial intelligence, spewing hate speech and violence, computational propaganda, deep fakes and imagery.
Nigerians today do not speak only about the traditionally perceived inequity between the north and south of Nigeria, as we inch closer towards the election cycle, the recurrent North-South conversations are again beginning to rear their heads this time with a different more divisive twist. For the first time, more people are beginning to engage in the Micro equity and Southern contiguity conversations, probably as a result of the perception of a skewed distribution of resources arising from widely held and touted beliefs that the southwest benefits unfairly at the expense of the other composite parts of the southern region like the South-East and the South- South.
Our democracy has obviously not learnt to walk the narrow corridor of creating a state strong enough to ensure stability amidst democratically guaranteed institutional freedoms such as the

freedom of expression and freedom of association. Repression has become increasingly fashionable, illiberal populism seems to be on the rise and the rule of law seems to be in retreat.
GENDER INCLUSION

No honest assessment can ignore gender disparities in political and leadership representation: There is a Chinese saying that ‘’you can’t hold up the sky with one hand’’
Nigeria has a historically low representation of women in political office, generally under 6 %, and was ranked 139th out of 156 countries in gender equality metrics. With 14 females out of 360 members in the House of Representatives and only 4 out of 109 Senators, Nigeria falls significantly below the African regional average of roughly 23.4% and the global average of 26.1% for women in parliament. 15 states out of 36 operate their legislature with zero female representation.
When half the population is underrepresented in decision-making, development and governance, outcomes inevitably suffer. This is not merely a gender issue; it is a governance failure. Evidence consistently shows that societies that include women in leadership experience:
• Better social outcomes
• Stronger community trust
• More sustainable development
A democracy that marginalizes women weakens itself. The period between 1999 and 2003 surpassed the prescribed 35% in appointive positions and witnessed women holding very strategic cabinet positions and delivering excellently on their mandate. The evidence is not abstract. Nigeria itself provides a powerful counterfactual.
When Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was appointed Minister of Finance, Nigeria was burdened by over
$30 billion in external debt, with debt servicing consuming a crippling share of national revenue and crowding out spending on development. Through disciplined fiscal management, institutional

reform, and one of the most complex sovereign negotiations in modern history, her leadership culminated in a landmark $18 billion debt relief deal with the Paris Club in 2005. That single outcome:
• Reduced Nigeria’s debt stock by more than 60 percent
• Freed billions of dollars annually for social and infrastructure spending
• Restored international credibility to Nigeria’s public finance system
This was not symbolic inclusion. It was measurable national gain. The lesson is clear: when Nigeria entrusted a woman with real authority over a critical institution, the result was not optics, it was outcomes. It was not propaganda; it was felt in all our homes.
Legislative interventions such as the special seat bill which has been presented consistently in the last three assemblies, the 8th, 9th and 10th assemblies have failed to get the desired legislative votes to achieve the affirmative action fillip required to close the embarrassing gender gaps as yet. The National Assembly will do well to seize this opportunity to etch its name glowingly in the annals of Nigeria’s history by passing the Special Seats Bill to allow for more female participation in governance. Nigeria desperately needs it.
YOUTH INCLUSION

Africa has been referred to as a young continent with old leadership and it is no less true for Nigeria. Over 70% of the Nigerian population is below the age of 40. 154 million young men and women out of our approximately 220 million population. Were all the youth in Nigeria to be resident in one country, that country would be the 10th most populous country in the world. The youth suffer much the same fate as women. The Nigerian state will do well to recognize the benefits of integrating this critical, mobile, innovative human force of development.

ONTO THE INSTITUTIONS

The Nigerian Judiciary has a 21% approval rating. A new report by the Africa Polling Institute (API) has found that 79% of Nigerians have little to no trust in the country’s judiciary, citing concerns like political influence, inefficiency, delay of the judicial process and erosion of integrity. Ironically, this appears to contrast sharply with known cases of bold judges who stood against authoritarian actions during the military era.
Justice Niki Tobi (JSC) of blessed memory puts it succinctly and I quote; “While politics as a profession is fully and totally based on partiality, most of the time, judgeship as a profession is fully and totally based on impartiality, the opposite of partiality. Their waters must never meet in the same way Rivers Niger and Benue meet at the confluence near Lokoja. If they meet, the victim will be democracy most of the time and that will be bad for sovereign Nigeria. We need democracy; not despotism, oligarchy and totalitarianism. Judges should, on no account, dance to the music played by politicians because that will completely destroy their role as independent umpires in the judicial process”.
This in my opinion should be the new template for the judiciary in Nigeria’s fledgling democracy.

THE LEGISLATURE

The problems that confront the legislature are tetra-headed. It battles weak legislative support systems and high attrition rate. The National Assembly records an average of 75% in legislator’s turnover since the fourth republic. Consequently, there is no institutional memory. In 26 years, the Legislature as an institution has struggled constantly to find its true relevance and independence in the tripartite spectre of democratic governance.
The bastion of our democracy, it is the only institution in government that echoes the voice of the people. The duty of the legislature is to mitigate usurpation of authority and accumulation of power in one person. When performed optimally, it checks unilateral executive action and balances the powers of the executive.

Between 2005 and 2006, an independent legislature voted against a constitutional amendment that sought to extend the tenure of an administration beyond the prescribed term limits.
In 2010, the Legislature invoked the controversial “doctrine of necessity” to proffer a political solution at a turbulent time in our nation’s history.
In the quest to entrench legislative independence, the National Assembly in a well publicized act of defiance resisted executive interference in the choice of her leadership and experienced probably the most vibrant Assembly till date. That was a period of mutual respect, greater accountability, better representation and more robust citizen participation. Those were the 7th & 8th Assemblies.
Sadly, the National Assembly seems to have yielded the hard fought for independence. There exists overarching executive dominance probably as a result of interference in the emergence of the leadership of the 10th Assembly which has earned them the unkind sobriquet from the Nigerian public; “Rubber Stamp Assembly”.
The integrity of the National Assembly, its actors and its actions have never been called more to question as recently when one of the core functions of the legislature, law making came under scrutiny amidst alleged distortions, inclusions and forgeries; and someone, or people or institutions acting Ultra Vires; post assent of a critical piece of legislation; The Nigerian Tax law. This, for the first time in our history sadly calls to question the integrity of all the laws that have been passed recently.
With regards to oversight another core function of the national assembly, the people question the inability to fund capital budgets, the three year cumulative budget deficit exceeding fifty trillion Naira, the 2026 fiscal deficit of 23.85 trillion naira, and debt service obligations of 15.2 trillion naira which exceeds the combined budget allocation for defense and security at a time where our country is almost crippled by insecurity, education and health budgets combined. People worry that the Mid Term Expenditure Framework MTEF and the Appropriation Act are blind to details of

the much touted Lagos-Calabar coastal high way in spite of its staggering cost. Furthermore, Nigerians understandably concerned about the leadership selection process, worry about the abuse of the confirmation powers for the Executive positions. The National Assembly seems to have abandoned all pretence of neutrality and the people question not only their performance but their competence.
CONCLUSION

In conclusion, without doubt, our country is exhibiting the warning signs of democratic fatigue. Voter apathy, youth disengagement, separatist tensions, and rising cynicism are warning signs. With more liberal voices silenced, we are confronted with the rise of populism and sycophantic allegiance to man not state. A sad reality is highlighted by the fact that those who wish to push the very elastic limits of our democracy are weaponizing and deploying the very institutions that should uphold and sustain it. The arduous task to prove that democracy can still deliver better than any other alternatives depends on the critical shift from democracy as power acquisition to democracy as service and governance.
We the people must be reminded that it is not only permissible, to hold government to account, it is our duty, we must stop looking away from the fact that the titanic of state has hit an ice berg, we must stop dancing to the loud music of elections and start to look for the life boats of governance. We all, the tripod of the elected; the citizens and the gatekeepers; made up of the media, civil society and the judiciary, with political parties acting as filters, must recommit to personal, institutional and systemic reforms. We must unlearn those retrogressive habits and position to acquire new rules of governance that will help us survive and dominate the revolutionary change that is upon us. In the words of Mark Carney, ‘’if we are not at the table were are on the menu’’.
We must breach the trust deficit between the elected and the governed. We must demand transparency from the elected and resist the constitutional overreach of the executive. We must

defend the integrity of strong state institutions and finally, we must insist on a respected impartial justice system.
A unified vision in our collective quest for security, good governance, prosperity, inclusiveness and accountability must be the absolute barest minimum. Embracing our diversity is non negotiable if we intend to build a prosperous nation in today’s world.

Thank you all for your kind attention!

Speech written and delivered by
Rep. Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje

22nd January 2026

Police Denials of Abductions of 160 during Church service Triggers Security Credibility Crisis

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Police Denials of Abductions of 160 during Church service Triggers Security Credibility Crisis

The most critical domestic security concern this week centers on Kaduna State, where reports emerged of a coordinated mass abduction targeting Christian worshippers in Kurmin Waje village, Afogo Ward, Kajuru Local Government Area. According to eyewitnesses and local representatives, heavily armed attackers stormed three churches during Sunday services and abducted congregants into nearby forests.

Initial reports indicated that up to 177 people were taken from the Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA) church and two Cherubim and Seraphim churches. Some elderly captives and persons living with disabilities were later released, while a small number reportedly escaped. Even with these releases, the scale of the incident was described by a member of the Kaduna State House of Assembly as unprecedented in the area.

Eyewitness accounts described the attackers as arriving around mid-morning, armed and organized, some wearing black clothing and others dressed in what appeared to be military camouflage. The abductors allegedly split into groups, targeting multiple churches simultaneously — a tactic that suggests planning and familiarity with the terrain.

However, within 24 hours, the Kaduna State Police Command publicly denied that any kidnapping had occurred. The Commissioner of Police dismissed the reports as falsehoods allegedly spread by “conflict entrepreneurs,” challenged the public to produce a list of victims, and warned against what he described as rumor-mongering capable of destabilizing the state. The chairman of Kajuru Local Government echoed this denial, stating that visits to the community revealed no evidence of an attack.

This sharp contradiction — between eyewitness testimony, local legislators, and official security statements — has become a defining feature of Nigeria’s recent security landscape.

CIVIL SOCIETY AND ACCESS RESTRICTIONS

Adding another layer to the controversy, Christian Solidarity Worldwide Nigeria (CSWN) reported that its team attempted to access Kurmin Waje to independently verify events but was stopped by military personnel enforcing standing orders not to allow entry. According to CSWN, the denial of access occurred shortly after a military convoy, reportedly including local government officials, exited the community.

CSWN maintains that attackers arrived on motorcycles and on foot, abducted worshippers from three churches, and forced them into surrounding bush areas. The organization reported that women, children, and elderly individuals were later released, while others escaped during the chaos.

These restrictions on independent verification have deepened suspicions and intensified concerns about transparency, accountability, and information control during security crises.

NIGER STATE: A PATTERN EMERGES

The Kaduna controversy follows a similar episode in Niger State, where authorities initially denied reports of the mass kidnapping of hundreds of Catholic students. That denial was later reversed when the same government publicly received the freed students, raising fundamental questions about why the incident was dismissed in the first place.

Together, these cases point to a recurring pattern: denial first, admission later, often under public pressure.

STRATEGIC AND HUMANITARIAN IMPLICATIONS

From a security perspective, mass kidnappings conducted in coordinated fashion indicate growing operational confidence among armed groups. From a governance standpoint, repeated denials risk doing lasting damage. When communities believe that authorities are concealing attacks, cooperation with security agencies diminishes, intelligence dries up, and trust collapses.

At the humanitarian level, families of abducted persons are left in uncertainty, while displaced and traumatized communities lose faith in institutions meant to protect them. Internationally, credibility gaps weaken Nigeria’s position as it seeks global support on security, counter-terrorism, and humanitarian relief.

WHY THIS MATTERS

Whether ongoing investigations ultimately confirm or disprove the full scale of the Kaduna incident, the damage caused by contradictory official messaging is already real. Security is not only about military response; it is also about truth, credibility, and public confidence.

As Nigeria remains under increased international scrutiny, the handling of security information may prove as consequential as the attacks themselves.

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Kajuru and the Retreat of Truth, by Abdul Mahmud

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Kajuru and the Retreat of Truth, by Abdul Mahmud

A garrisoned state should not wake up to the disappearance of one hundred and seventy-seven citizens and then drift into equivocation. Kaduna State is one of the most securitised states in Nigeria. Barracks dot its landscape. Checkpoints punctuate everywhere. Intelligence formations abound. When such a place loses an entire community to abductors, the first duty of the state is fidelity to the truth. What followed the Kurmin Wali, Kajuru abductions was something else.

The police statement now before the public reads like a reluctant confession. First came acknowledgment of public anxiety. Then came a story of dispute at a security council meeting where unnamed persons questioned a report earlier confirmed by the police. Out of the official contradiction emerged a posture of caution. Words were chosen to calm nerves. Truth was exiled. In the end, after days of denial and deliberate hedging, the truth forced its way back into the light. The abduction did occur. One hundred and seventy seven persons were taken from Kurmin Wali, Kajuru.

This sequence matters. Denial came first. Admission followed under pressure. That retreat from an initial posture of disbelief speaks to a deeper malaise. The Nigerian state has developed a reflex of disowning reality whenever reality proves inconvenient. Violence must be minimised. Numbers must be masked. In that space of obfuscation, truth bleeds. The Commissioner of Police spoke of preventing panic. That explanation sounds reasonable only until one asks who benefits from panic management that suppresses fact. Fear thrives on uncertainty, not on truth. Communities panic more when they sense that officials are withholding information. Families panic when their loved ones vanish and the state responds with ambivalence. The refusal to speak plainly does not calm. It corrodes trust. But, Kaduna State did not tip-toe into this crisis. The abduction of one hundred and seventy-seven people in a single sweep required logistics, planning, intelligence, and time. Such an operation could not unfold without movement across roads and terrain watched by security forces. The question that hangs heavy in the air concerns resistance. How did such a large number get taken without confrontation? How did they disappear without alarm? Silence from security services on these points deepens public suspicion. And rightly so, as officialdom took its time to summon the courage to admit the facts. But a citizen-journalist did so with courage. Steven Kefas broke the story while denial still held sway. He went beyond announcing figures. He published names. Across several platforms, he insisted that the abductions had taken place. In doing so, he discharged a civic duty the state hesitated to perform. The distance between his certainty and official doubt reveals where truth now resides in Nigeria. Often, it lives with citizens who have no uniforms and no podiums.

This inversion of credibility did not begin with Kajuru. Under Tinubu’s rulership, denial has become a directive and governing principle. From economic hardship to security failures, the first response has been to contest lived experience. Inflation figures are contested while inflation empties pockets in real terms. Hunger is debated while households skip meals. Insecurity is reframed while communities bury their dead. Power speaks in abstractions, while hunger is hung like scarlet letters around the necks of citizens. Denial follows a pattern. First, reality is questioned. Then messengers are discredited. After that, a partial admission appears when denial becomes untenable. Finally, the state demands gratitude for conceding what everyone already knows. This cycle erodes moral authority. Governance turns into public relations. Truth becomes negotiable. The Kurmin Wali, Kajuru episode exposes another dimension of this culture. Truth is not merely delayed. Truth is purloined. Facts are lifted from their proper owners, the victims, and handled as contraband. They are released only when convenient. In this trade, conscience has a price. Those who ought to speak plainly calculate optics. Mammon dictates tone. The suffering of ordinary people becomes mere collateral in the war to protect narratives.

The police statement speaks of misinterpretation. That word does heavy lifting. Misinterpretation suggests excess zeal on the part of the audience rather than failure on the part of authority. The public did not misinterpret denial. The public heard denial. When officials say reports are false or disputed, citizens understand the plain meaning. Backtracking cannot erase that memory. There are consequences to this style of governance. Communities stop reporting crimes promptly because they fear disbelief. Citizens turn to social media as primary sources because official channels lack credibility. Rumour flourishes where transparency retreats. Security operations suffer because trust has been squandered. The moral cost is higher. A state that bargains with truth cannot command loyalty. A government that colours facts to suit politics teaches citizens to do the same. Kajuru demands more than belated confirmation. It demands answers. How did the abductors assemble? What routes did they use? Where were the security patrols? What intelligence warnings were missed or ignored? Accountability requires names and timelines. Without these, promises of deployment and patrols sound like ritual incantations.

Nigeria has reached a point where denial no longer buys time. It only buys anger. Citizens are weary of being told that what they see did not happen. They are tired of watching officials negotiate with obvious facts. The abduction of one hundred and seventy seven people is not a problem of narrativisation, it is a human tragedy. The path to truth must begin with candour. Security agencies must speak as guardians, not as image managers. Political leaders must abandon the comfort of denial and face the discomfort of truth. Only then can trust begin to return. Kurmin Wali, Kajuru stands as a grim reminder. When the state retreats from truth, citizens advance toward despair. When denial becomes policy, insecurity becomes the destiny. Nigeria deserves better than a government that admits reality only after reality echoes back, like an empty chamber.

Cheap Food, Broken Farms: How Imports and Policy Are Destroying Nigerian Agriculture

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Cheap food should be good news. But in Nigeria today, falling food prices are quietly destroying farmers, livelihoods, and the future of agriculture.

In this episode of The Other Side, hosted by Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum, we examine a troubling paradox at the heart of Nigeria’s economy: why lower food prices — driven largely by massive imports of rice, maize, and grains — are pushing local farmers into debt, abandonment of farms, and in some cases, outright criminalisation.

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy recently announced that the government would move to support farmers after food prices fell below production costs in many parts of the country. On the surface, the claim sounds reassuring. But on the ground, the reality is far more disturbing.

Across farming communities, crops are being left unharvested because the cost of harvesting now exceeds what farmers can earn at the market. During the recent harvest season, maize that sold for about ₦65,000 per 100kg bag last year collapsed to as low as ₦18,000 in parts of the Abuja axis. Meanwhile, the cost of inputs — fertiliser, seeds, herbicides, labour — has continued to rise sharply.

A bag of fertiliser that once sold for ₦38,000 now goes for between ₦50,000 and ₦60,000. For many farmers, even a good harvest no longer guarantees the recovery of costs. In one heartbreaking case highlighted in this episode, a farmer who cultivated 100 hectares of rice abandoned his entire field after realising that harvesting alone would cost more than the value of the crop at prevailing market prices.

This crisis is not only economic — it is social. Young farmers who borrowed money to farm, following practices that worked in previous years, are now unable to repay loans. Some have been arrested. Others have fled their villages, unable to face lenders. Entire rural communities are being hollowed out, even as government officials celebrate cheaper food in urban markets.

Rimamnde Shawulu situates this crisis within a broader policy failure. While Nigeria relies heavily on food imports, countries like the United States openly subsidise agriculture to stabilise prices, protect farmers, and preserve rural employment. In some historical cases, governments even bought excess produce to maintain price stability — not because markets failed, but because food security was considered too important to leave to chance.

Former Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi, after touring farms in Ekiti State, publicly advised Nigeria to create an enabling environment for farmers through deliberate policy choices: subsidies, infrastructure, regulation, and incentives. As he noted, agriculture anywhere in the world does not survive without state support.

Yet in Nigeria, farming remains largely peasant-based, unsupported, and exposed to market shocks. The result is predictable: young people are discouraged from entering agriculture, investment is destroyed, and food security becomes increasingly fragile.

This episode also raises urgent questions for the Tinubu administration. Why have thousands of commissioned tractors not been released to farming cooperatives? Why are fertilisers still unaffordable at the start of the planting season? Why do subsidies often end up with middlemen rather than real farmers? And why does government intervention arrive late, after the rains have already begun?

The warning is clear. If Nigeria continues to depend on imports while neglecting local producers, jobs will be exported to other countries, rural economies will collapse, and future food shortages will become inevitable.

The Other Side goes beyond headlines to expose the structural contradictions shaping Nigeria’s governance, economy, and democracy. This episode is essential viewing for policymakers, farmers, analysts, and citizens concerned about food security, employment, and national stability.

If you care about where Nigeria is headed — and what must change — this conversation matters.

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Nigeria Should Rebuild Lives at Home, Not Lobby Washington

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Nigeria is facing a crisis of trust—both at home and abroad. Yet rather than confront this crisis through transparency and accountability, the Federal Government has chosen a different path: spending $9 million lobbying Washington to counter claims that Christians are being targeted and killed because of their faith.

This decision, revealed through filings under the United States Foreign Agents Registration Act, raises serious questions about priorities. At a time when communities across Plateau, Benue, Southern Kaduna, Nasarawa, and parts of the North-East remain devastated by violence, displacement, and loss, billions of naira were allocated not to rebuilding homes or resettling victims, but to managing Nigeria’s international image.

The government’s central argument is denial. Yet denial without evidence convinces no one. There has been no comprehensive national investigation, no public hearings by the National Assembly, and no transparent, independently verified statistics to rebut claims of religiously targeted violence. This vacuum has been filled by international watchdogs, survivor testimonies, and open-source documentation.

In today’s world, truth is increasingly difficult to suppress. Information travels faster than press releases, and credibility is earned through action, not contracts with foreign lobbyists.

Nigeria did not need $9 million to defend itself abroad. It needed a fraction of that amount to establish a credible, multi-faith investigative process at home—and to begin rebuilding shattered communities.

A government that prioritises explanation over restoration risks being seen not as misunderstood, but as complicit through inaction. Nigeria’s path forward lies not in Washington boardrooms, but in the villages and towns where lives must be rebuilt and trust restored.

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