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Kajuru and the Retreat of Truth, by Abdul Mahmud

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Kajuru and the Retreat of Truth, by Abdul Mahmud

A garrisoned state should not wake up to the disappearance of one hundred and seventy-seven citizens and then drift into equivocation. Kaduna State is one of the most securitised states in Nigeria. Barracks dot its landscape. Checkpoints punctuate everywhere. Intelligence formations abound. When such a place loses an entire community to abductors, the first duty of the state is fidelity to the truth. What followed the Kurmin Wali, Kajuru abductions was something else.

The police statement now before the public reads like a reluctant confession. First came acknowledgment of public anxiety. Then came a story of dispute at a security council meeting where unnamed persons questioned a report earlier confirmed by the police. Out of the official contradiction emerged a posture of caution. Words were chosen to calm nerves. Truth was exiled. In the end, after days of denial and deliberate hedging, the truth forced its way back into the light. The abduction did occur. One hundred and seventy seven persons were taken from Kurmin Wali, Kajuru.

This sequence matters. Denial came first. Admission followed under pressure. That retreat from an initial posture of disbelief speaks to a deeper malaise. The Nigerian state has developed a reflex of disowning reality whenever reality proves inconvenient. Violence must be minimised. Numbers must be masked. In that space of obfuscation, truth bleeds. The Commissioner of Police spoke of preventing panic. That explanation sounds reasonable only until one asks who benefits from panic management that suppresses fact. Fear thrives on uncertainty, not on truth. Communities panic more when they sense that officials are withholding information. Families panic when their loved ones vanish and the state responds with ambivalence. The refusal to speak plainly does not calm. It corrodes trust. But, Kaduna State did not tip-toe into this crisis. The abduction of one hundred and seventy-seven people in a single sweep required logistics, planning, intelligence, and time. Such an operation could not unfold without movement across roads and terrain watched by security forces. The question that hangs heavy in the air concerns resistance. How did such a large number get taken without confrontation? How did they disappear without alarm? Silence from security services on these points deepens public suspicion. And rightly so, as officialdom took its time to summon the courage to admit the facts. But a citizen-journalist did so with courage. Steven Kefas broke the story while denial still held sway. He went beyond announcing figures. He published names. Across several platforms, he insisted that the abductions had taken place. In doing so, he discharged a civic duty the state hesitated to perform. The distance between his certainty and official doubt reveals where truth now resides in Nigeria. Often, it lives with citizens who have no uniforms and no podiums.

This inversion of credibility did not begin with Kajuru. Under Tinubu’s rulership, denial has become a directive and governing principle. From economic hardship to security failures, the first response has been to contest lived experience. Inflation figures are contested while inflation empties pockets in real terms. Hunger is debated while households skip meals. Insecurity is reframed while communities bury their dead. Power speaks in abstractions, while hunger is hung like scarlet letters around the necks of citizens. Denial follows a pattern. First, reality is questioned. Then messengers are discredited. After that, a partial admission appears when denial becomes untenable. Finally, the state demands gratitude for conceding what everyone already knows. This cycle erodes moral authority. Governance turns into public relations. Truth becomes negotiable. The Kurmin Wali, Kajuru episode exposes another dimension of this culture. Truth is not merely delayed. Truth is purloined. Facts are lifted from their proper owners, the victims, and handled as contraband. They are released only when convenient. In this trade, conscience has a price. Those who ought to speak plainly calculate optics. Mammon dictates tone. The suffering of ordinary people becomes mere collateral in the war to protect narratives.

The police statement speaks of misinterpretation. That word does heavy lifting. Misinterpretation suggests excess zeal on the part of the audience rather than failure on the part of authority. The public did not misinterpret denial. The public heard denial. When officials say reports are false or disputed, citizens understand the plain meaning. Backtracking cannot erase that memory. There are consequences to this style of governance. Communities stop reporting crimes promptly because they fear disbelief. Citizens turn to social media as primary sources because official channels lack credibility. Rumour flourishes where transparency retreats. Security operations suffer because trust has been squandered. The moral cost is higher. A state that bargains with truth cannot command loyalty. A government that colours facts to suit politics teaches citizens to do the same. Kajuru demands more than belated confirmation. It demands answers. How did the abductors assemble? What routes did they use? Where were the security patrols? What intelligence warnings were missed or ignored? Accountability requires names and timelines. Without these, promises of deployment and patrols sound like ritual incantations.

Nigeria has reached a point where denial no longer buys time. It only buys anger. Citizens are weary of being told that what they see did not happen. They are tired of watching officials negotiate with obvious facts. The abduction of one hundred and seventy seven people is not a problem of narrativisation, it is a human tragedy. The path to truth must begin with candour. Security agencies must speak as guardians, not as image managers. Political leaders must abandon the comfort of denial and face the discomfort of truth. Only then can trust begin to return. Kurmin Wali, Kajuru stands as a grim reminder. When the state retreats from truth, citizens advance toward despair. When denial becomes policy, insecurity becomes the destiny. Nigeria deserves better than a government that admits reality only after reality echoes back, like an empty chamber.

Cheap Food, Broken Farms: How Imports and Policy Are Destroying Nigerian Agriculture

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Cheap food should be good news. But in Nigeria today, falling food prices are quietly destroying farmers, livelihoods, and the future of agriculture.

In this episode of The Other Side, hosted by Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum, we examine a troubling paradox at the heart of Nigeria’s economy: why lower food prices — driven largely by massive imports of rice, maize, and grains — are pushing local farmers into debt, abandonment of farms, and in some cases, outright criminalisation.

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy recently announced that the government would move to support farmers after food prices fell below production costs in many parts of the country. On the surface, the claim sounds reassuring. But on the ground, the reality is far more disturbing.

Across farming communities, crops are being left unharvested because the cost of harvesting now exceeds what farmers can earn at the market. During the recent harvest season, maize that sold for about ₦65,000 per 100kg bag last year collapsed to as low as ₦18,000 in parts of the Abuja axis. Meanwhile, the cost of inputs — fertiliser, seeds, herbicides, labour — has continued to rise sharply.

A bag of fertiliser that once sold for ₦38,000 now goes for between ₦50,000 and ₦60,000. For many farmers, even a good harvest no longer guarantees the recovery of costs. In one heartbreaking case highlighted in this episode, a farmer who cultivated 100 hectares of rice abandoned his entire field after realising that harvesting alone would cost more than the value of the crop at prevailing market prices.

This crisis is not only economic — it is social. Young farmers who borrowed money to farm, following practices that worked in previous years, are now unable to repay loans. Some have been arrested. Others have fled their villages, unable to face lenders. Entire rural communities are being hollowed out, even as government officials celebrate cheaper food in urban markets.

Rimamnde Shawulu situates this crisis within a broader policy failure. While Nigeria relies heavily on food imports, countries like the United States openly subsidise agriculture to stabilise prices, protect farmers, and preserve rural employment. In some historical cases, governments even bought excess produce to maintain price stability — not because markets failed, but because food security was considered too important to leave to chance.

Former Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi, after touring farms in Ekiti State, publicly advised Nigeria to create an enabling environment for farmers through deliberate policy choices: subsidies, infrastructure, regulation, and incentives. As he noted, agriculture anywhere in the world does not survive without state support.

Yet in Nigeria, farming remains largely peasant-based, unsupported, and exposed to market shocks. The result is predictable: young people are discouraged from entering agriculture, investment is destroyed, and food security becomes increasingly fragile.

This episode also raises urgent questions for the Tinubu administration. Why have thousands of commissioned tractors not been released to farming cooperatives? Why are fertilisers still unaffordable at the start of the planting season? Why do subsidies often end up with middlemen rather than real farmers? And why does government intervention arrive late, after the rains have already begun?

The warning is clear. If Nigeria continues to depend on imports while neglecting local producers, jobs will be exported to other countries, rural economies will collapse, and future food shortages will become inevitable.

The Other Side goes beyond headlines to expose the structural contradictions shaping Nigeria’s governance, economy, and democracy. This episode is essential viewing for policymakers, farmers, analysts, and citizens concerned about food security, employment, and national stability.

If you care about where Nigeria is headed — and what must change — this conversation matters.

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Nigeria Should Rebuild Lives at Home, Not Lobby Washington

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Nigeria is facing a crisis of trust—both at home and abroad. Yet rather than confront this crisis through transparency and accountability, the Federal Government has chosen a different path: spending $9 million lobbying Washington to counter claims that Christians are being targeted and killed because of their faith.

This decision, revealed through filings under the United States Foreign Agents Registration Act, raises serious questions about priorities. At a time when communities across Plateau, Benue, Southern Kaduna, Nasarawa, and parts of the North-East remain devastated by violence, displacement, and loss, billions of naira were allocated not to rebuilding homes or resettling victims, but to managing Nigeria’s international image.

The government’s central argument is denial. Yet denial without evidence convinces no one. There has been no comprehensive national investigation, no public hearings by the National Assembly, and no transparent, independently verified statistics to rebut claims of religiously targeted violence. This vacuum has been filled by international watchdogs, survivor testimonies, and open-source documentation.

In today’s world, truth is increasingly difficult to suppress. Information travels faster than press releases, and credibility is earned through action, not contracts with foreign lobbyists.

Nigeria did not need $9 million to defend itself abroad. It needed a fraction of that amount to establish a credible, multi-faith investigative process at home—and to begin rebuilding shattered communities.

A government that prioritises explanation over restoration risks being seen not as misunderstood, but as complicit through inaction. Nigeria’s path forward lies not in Washington boardrooms, but in the villages and towns where lives must be rebuilt and trust restored.

Bandits Killings in Niger and Zamfara as Military Raids and Global Security Shocks Escalate

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Bandits Killings in Niger and Zamfara as Military Raids and Global Security Shocks Escalate

Nigeria’s security landscape remains deeply volatile as armed banditry, kidnappings, and insurgent violence persist across multiple regions, even as security forces intensify operations. In this edition of Security Update, hosted by Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum, we provide a verified, region-by-region breakdown of last week’s most critical security developments in Nigeria, Africa, and the global arena, with implications for national stability and regional security.

Nigeria: Escalating Rural Violence and Military Response

We begin in Niger State, where armed bandits attacked Damala village in Borgu Local Government Area, killing four residents. The attackers struck late at night, firing indiscriminately and forcing villagers to flee into surrounding forests. No immediate security response was reported during the raid, allowing the gunmen to escape before dawn. This attack follows a recent mass-casualty assault on Kaswandaji Market along the same axis, highlighting the persistent entrenchment of armed groups in North-Central Nigeria. Analysts warn that the vast terrain and overstretched forces raise serious concerns about the sustainability of current security deployments.

In Kogi State, joint police and military units launched a large-scale, air-supported operation targeting bandit camps across forested areas. Security agencies confirmed that multiple hideouts were destroyed and several suspects neutralized, though official casualty figures were not disclosed. Kogi has increasingly emerged as a strategic corridor linking armed groups operating across Niger, Kwara, Ondo, and Edo States, marking a shift toward intelligence-driven, inter-agency cooperation. However, experts caution that such offensives often trigger reprisals against civilian communities suspected of collaborating with security forces.

In Kaduna State, police arrested suspected bandits in Chikun Local Government Area and recovered 65 stolen cattle following a series of livestock raids. While no fatalities were reported, cattle rustling remains a major financial lifeline for armed groups and a significant driver of rural conflict. Authorities say investigations are ongoing to dismantle wider criminal networks, even as livestock-related violence continues to fuel retaliatory attacks across Kaduna and neighboring states.

In the Middle Belt, Nigerian troops raided kidnappers’ hideouts in Plateau State, killing several suspects and recovering weapons. The camps were reportedly used to detain abducted victims. The operation followed actionable intelligence amid a surge in kidnappings targeting rural roads and farming communities. While security officials say operations will continue, criminal groups continue to exploit forested terrain to evade capture.

In Zamfara State, bandits attacked Ferenruwa village in Maru Local Government Area, killing an Assistant Superintendent of Police and five civilians, while abducting several villagers. The killing of senior security personnel underscores the growing boldness of armed groups. Zamfara remains one of Nigeria’s most violent states, plagued by banditry, kidnappings, and attacks on communities. The crisis is further complicated by illegal gold mining, often referred to as “blood gold,” which analysts say helps finance armed groups and fuels insecurity.

Africa: Insurgency and Political Repression

Beyond Nigeria, Somali forces, supported by international partners, killed 29 Al-Shabaab fighters in the Middle Shabelle region. Vehicles and weapons were destroyed, disrupting planned attacks on civilians. While the operation was a tactical success, analysts warn that Al-Shabaab frequently regroups after such losses.

In Tanzania, human rights groups and the United Nations allege that security forces may have killed large numbers of civilians following the disputed 2025 elections, with incidents reported in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Arusha. The government insists it acted to restore order, while opposition figures accuse authorities of extrajudicial killings—reflecting a broader trend of political repression in parts of East Africa.

Global: Escalation and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

Globally, Russia launched hypersonic missiles at targets near western Ukraine, close to NATO borders, marking a dangerous escalation in the ongoing war. Civilian casualties were reported. In Iran, protests that began over economic hardship have evolved into calls for an end to clerical rule, with reports of thousands killed. Meanwhile, extremist sabotage of power cables plunged 100,000 people in Berlin into darkness, exposing critical infrastructure vulnerabilities in Europe.

Across Nigeria, Africa, and the world, these developments show how modern security threats are increasingly interconnected—linking rural banditry, insurgency, political repression, and infrastructure sabotage.

Subscribe to Security Update for verified weekly reports on Nigeria, Africa, and the world.

Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis: 141 Million Poor, Failing Reforms, and the Food Security Time Bomb

Rimamnde Shawulu
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Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis: 141 Million Poor, Failing Reforms, and the Food Security Time Bomb

They say when evil falls, it falls like rain. Today, that proverb feels painfully accurate for Nigeria. kidnappings, terrorism, and violent crime, a deeper and more dangerous crisis is unfolding — one defined by hunger, collapsing rural livelihoods, and a rapid slide into mass poverty.

In this episode of The Other Side, Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum examines the economic and security dynamics pushing Nigeria toward a food and poverty emergency. Recent reports cited by Vanguard reveal a sobering projection: no fewer than 141 million Nigerians are expected to live in poverty this year. This figure is drawn from the Economic Outlook 2026 published by PricewaterhouseCoopers, which warns that more than 62 percent of Nigeria’s population may fall below the poverty line as macroeconomic “reforms” take hold without adequate social or productive safeguards.

Economists quoted in the report describe the situation as severe and worsening — a reality driven not only by inflation and policy adjustment shocks, but by a breakdown in the country’s productive base, particularly agriculture. The crisis is visible on the ground. In Kaduna State alone, over 2,000 farmers recorded losses estimated at ₦10.16 billion during the 2025 farming season.

These farmers, drawn from all three senatorial districts, were hit by a nationwide crash in maize prices while the cost of fertilizers, seeds, and other inputs continued to rise sharply. Many are now appealing to the federal government and the Central Bank for urgent intervention. Similar patterns are playing out elsewhere. Cassava farmers in Atani and surrounding communities in Ogbaru Local Government Area suffered devastating post-harvest losses due to flooding, leaving many unable to recover financially.

According to BusinessDay, more than 1,356 farmers have been killed in the last five years due to persistent insecurity — a figure widely considered conservative given the scale of rural violence and unreported kidnappings.

In states such as Benue State and Taraba State, entire farming communities have been displaced for years. In some areas, farmers can only access their land after paying protection money to bandits. In others, those who attempt to harvest their crops are attacked or killed. The result is a shrinking agricultural workforce and abandoned farmlands across Nigeria’s food-producing belts.

Yet insecurity is only half the story. Government policy has compounded the crisis. The decision to license large-scale importation of rice, maize, and beans has collapsed local prices, leaving farmers unable to sell their produce at sustainable rates. Traders who once exported Nigerian beans can no longer do so. Domestic produce is now selling below market value, making it impossible for farmers to reinvest in the next planting season. This creates a dangerous cycle: low prices discourage farming; insecurity prevents access to land; rising input costs block recovery; and cheap imports undermine local production.

As farmers exit agriculture, unemployment rises, especially among young people who would otherwise remain in rural communities. Looking ahead, Nigeria faces a looming twin crisis — worsening unemployment and severe food shortages. If farmers cannot return to their fields, and if government lacks the resources to sustain imports indefinitely, food availability will decline sharply. Even where imports continue, affordability will remain out of reach for millions displaced by violence or trapped in urban slums.

In this episode, The Other Side asks critical questions: Are Nigeria’s economic reforms structured to protect the productive sector? Why does government prioritise food importation over supporting domestic farmers? Should Nigeria adopt production-focused subsidies — similar to policies in the United States — by buying farm produce at market value instead of flooding the market with cheap imports?

Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum challenges policymakers, analysts, and citizens to rethink Nigeria’s economic trajectory. Without security in rural areas and deliberate investment in local production, reforms risk deepening poverty rather than reversing it.

What is your assessment of the government’s approach? Can Nigeria reverse this trend before hunger and unemployment spiral further out of control? Subscribe for weekly insights on Nigeria’s politics and democracy.

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Iran’s Moment of Reckoning: Why This Uprising Is Different

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Iran’s Moment of Reckoning: Why This Uprising Is Different

For more than four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has survived sanctions, wars, and repeated waves of protest. Yet today, for the first time since 1979, its survival is being questioned not only by dissidents abroad, but by millions on the streets at home.

What began as demonstrations over economic hardship—currency collapse, water shortages, and declining living standards—has evolved into a nationwide movement demanding the end of clerical rule. Reports suggest unrest in over 100 cities, accompanied by strikes, shop closures, and a near-total internet blackout imposed by the state.

The government’s response follows a familiar authoritarian script: digital repression, mass arrests, and the deployment of security forces. However, what distinguishes this moment is Iran’s unprecedented geopolitical isolation. Long-standing regional allies and proxy networks that once provided strategic depth have been significantly weakened, leaving the regime without external buffers.

History shows that authoritarian systems rarely fall solely because of protests; they collapse when internal cohesion fractures. While no verified mass defections have yet occurred, growing reports of reluctance among security personnel to confront protesters raise uncomfortable questions for Tehran.

Whether this crisis ends in repression, reform, or regime collapse remains uncertain. What is clear is that Iran has entered its most consequential political moment in nearly half a century—one whose outcome will reshape the Middle East and reverberate far beyond its borders.

— The Other Side, Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum

 

30 Killed in Niger, Soldiers Ambushed in Borno as Banditry Engulfs Nigeria – Weekly Security Update

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30 Killed in Niger, Soldiers Ambushed in Borno as Banditry Engulfs Nigeria – Weekly Security Update

Nigeria entered the new year amid sustained insecurity across multiple regions, with coordinated attacks, mass killings, military ambushes, and kidnappings recorded between late December and the first week of January. The incidents underscore persistent weaknesses in rural security and the expanding geographical spread of armed violence.

In Kaduna State, bandits attacked a community in Lere Local Government Area on December 29, killing at least three residents and abducting three others during a late-night raid. Local sources reported that the attackers operated for several hours before withdrawing. Community leaders in southern Kaduna say more than 160 villages in the area have been affected by years of banditry and forced displacement.

Security authorities later announced the arrest of 39 suspects, said to have relocated from forest reserves in Sokoto State into neighbouring areas. Officials described the arrests as a preventive action to curb spillover by armed groups displaced by recent counterterrorism operations in the northwest.

In Kogi State, gunmen attacked the Omi-Arab community in Yagba West Local Government Area on December 31. Residents reported gunfire and overnight abductions. While casualties were not immediately confirmed, the incident adds to a growing pattern of kidnappings along the Yagba axis, an area increasingly described by security sources as an emerging corridor for extremist infiltration.

The deadliest attack of the period occurred in Niger State, where gunmen stormed Kaswan Daji Market in Borgu Local Government Area on January 4. Police confirmed that at least 30 people were killed, with market stalls and homes set ablaze. Local residents said some abducted persons may include schoolgirls previously released after negotiations. Federal authorities ordered intensified manhunts following the attack, which ranks among the most severe in the state in recent months.

In the northeast, a Nigerian military convoy travelling from Maiduguri to Damasak was ambushed in Mobbar Local Government Area of Borno State after striking a landmine. At least nine soldiers were reported killed, while five others sustained serious injuries. Militants reportedly opened fire after the explosion, destroying armoured vehicles. The attack points to renewed insurgent capability despite ongoing military operations in the region.

Elsewhere, joint security operations across Plateau, Zamfara, Kogi, and Borno States reportedly led to the neutralisation of suspected terrorists, the rescue of abducted victims, and the arrest of logistics suppliers. In Adamawa State, explosive devices were recovered without casualties, while Bayelsa State recorded river piracy incidents that left at least two passengers dead along the Nun River. In Oyo State, mob violence in Ibadan resulted in the lynching of three individuals following false accusations of theft, highlighting the growing risks of vigilantism.

Beyond Nigeria, insecurity persisted across parts of Africa. In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, suspected Allied Democratic Forces fighters killed at least 15 civilians in Ituri Province. In Sudan’s Darfur region, renewed militia attacks reportedly claimed more than 100 civilian lives in one week, exacerbating displacement and food shortages. A migrant boat capsized off the coast of The Gambia, leaving about 40 people feared dead or missing.

Globally, the Russia-Ukraine war continued into the new year with renewed strikes and counter-claims of drone attacks, while Iran witnessed widespread protests across more than 100 cities, raising questions about internal stability. Developments in Venezuela also drew international attention amid escalating legal and diplomatic tensions.

Security analysts note a recurring pattern across many of these incidents: rural communities remain the most exposed, with armed groups exploiting weak state presence, economic hardship, and porous terrain. As the year begins, the scale and spread of violence point to a complex security environment requiring sustained, coordinated responses at both national and regional levels.

Who Changed Nigeria’s Tax Laws? Inside the Gazette Scandal

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Who Changed Nigeria’s Tax Laws? Inside the Gazette Scandal

What happens when the laws a government is enforcing are not the same laws its parliament approved?

In this episode of The Other Side, Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum examines a growing constitutional controversy surrounding Nigeria’s new tax regime. Allegations have emerged that the tax laws currently being implemented differ from the versions passed by the National Assembly, raising profound questions about legality, due process, and democratic accountability.

The issue came to public attention after a member of the House of Representatives alleged that the Acts gazetted and circulated by the executive arm contain provisions that were not approved by lawmakers. Rather than a transparent floor debate, the matter was referred to a committee that failed to conclude its work before parliamentary recess—leaving Nigerians governed by laws whose authenticity remains in dispute.

This episode breaks down how laws are meant to move from parliament to implementation: passage by both chambers, transmission, presidential assent, and official gazetting. Each step exists to prevent precisely this kind of ambiguity. When that chain is compromised, the rule of law itself is threatened.

Special focus is placed on the role of the Government Printer and tax authorities, and whether due diligence was followed before enforcement began. If laws were altered after assent, then implementation may be unconstitutional, with far-reaching implications for revenue collection, compliance, and investor confidence.

Beyond tax policy, this discussion exposes a deeper governance problem—weak institutional accountability and blurred lines of authority. If laws can change without parliamentary approval, then democratic oversight is reduced to a formality.

This episode is essential viewing for policymakers, lawyers, civil society, and citizens concerned about constitutional order and the future of Nigeria’s democracy.

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This edition of Security Update, hosted by Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum, examines Nigeria’s deepening security crisis through three interconnected developments: the release of kidnapped schoolchildren in Niger State, renewed presidential rhetoric on branding bandits as terrorists, and mounting controversy over the arming of auxiliary forces linked to vigilante groups.

Nigeria: School Kidnappings and Conditional Releases

Nigerian authorities have confirmed the release of an additional 130 students abducted from a Catholic school in Niger State, following the earlier release of 100 others. Prior disclosures from church officials also clarified that some pupils initially listed as abducted had escaped independently. Despite the positive outcome, critical questions remain unanswered. Authorities have not disclosed whether negotiations involved ransom payments, intermediaries, or security concessions.

These releases follow earlier mass kidnappings, including 25 pupils abducted in Kebbi State and over 300 taken in Niger State, incidents that forced multiple state governments to shut down schools. The recurring targeting of educational institutions underscores the sustained vulnerability of children within Nigeria’s security landscape.

The episode also revives unresolved national wounds. Over 90 Chibok schoolgirls abducted more than a decade ago remain unaccounted for, alongside Leah Sharibu, the sole remaining captive from the Dapchi school abduction in Yobe State. Her continued detention remains a potent symbol of state failure and unresolved counterterrorism commitments.

Presidential Declarations vs Legal Reality

During the presentation of the 2026 federal budget, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu again stated that armed bandits and violent criminal groups would be treated as terrorists under Nigeria’s security framework. While the declaration aligns with public frustration over mass killings and kidnappings, the legal implications are less straightforward.

Under Nigerian law, terrorist designation is not achieved by presidential pronouncement alone. Previous designations, such as that of IPOB, followed judicial proceedings and formal court orders. To date, no court judgment exists classifying bandit groups operating across the North-West, North-Central, North-East, or South-West as terrorist organizations.

This legal gap raises operational questions. Without judicial backing or new legislation from the National Assembly, security agencies lack the expanded legal authority typically associated with counterterrorism operations. As a result, critics argue that repeated declarations risk remaining symbolic rather than transformative.

Kwara Controversy: Armed Auxiliaries and Public Trust

Further controversy erupted following reports that armed individuals apprehended in Kwara State were linked to vigilante structures allegedly sanctioned by the Office of the National Security Advisor (ONSA). While initial reports suggested affiliation with the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN), both ONSA and MACBAN issued denials.

ONSA acknowledged authorizing weapons for vetted auxiliaries under the Terrorism Prevention and Prohibition Act 2022, insisting that recipients were formally recruited, supervised, and deployed in support roles. MACBAN, however, denied institutional involvement, stating that any armed individuals acted independently.

The incident triggered wider concerns about transparency, coordination, and accountability. Questions persist over how many groups have been vetted, where they operate, under whose command they function, and whether issued weapons are tracked and recoverable. Critics warn that inconsistent enforcement risks reinforcing extremist propaganda that claims government complicity in arming violent actors.

Patterns, Risks, and Strategic Implications

Taken together, these developments reveal a pattern of policy ambiguity, legal uncertainty, and uneven enforcement. While Nigeria continues to rely on hybrid security responses involving auxiliaries and vigilantes, the absence of clear public registries, judicial oversight, and unified command structures undermines trust and coherence.

Politically, the contradictions expose vulnerabilities within Nigeria’s counterterrorism narrative at a time of heightened international scrutiny. Humanitarian consequences remain severe, particularly for children, displaced communities, and rural populations caught between armed groups and inconsistent state protection.

Why This Matters

Security in Nigeria is no longer defined solely by battlefield outcomes. It is shaped by legality, legitimacy, and public confidence. Without resolving these contradictions, tactical successes—such as hostage releases—risk being overshadowed by long-term institutional fragility.

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Who Killed the PDP? Inside Nigeria’s Political Breakdown

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Who Killed the PDP? Inside Nigeria’s Political Breakdown

Nigeria may be witnessing the quiet collapse of one of the most consequential political parties in its democratic history.

In this edition of The Other Side, Rimamnde Shawulu Kwewum examines the steady unraveling of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — a party once central to Nigeria’s return to civilian rule, now weakened by defections, internal fractures, and unresolved power struggles.

Formed as a broad coalition to end military dominance and stabilise the post-authoritarian state, the PDP was never built around a shared ideology. Its strength lay in compromise, elite consensus, and the urgency of a historic mission. For years, that arrangement held. But the very compromises that enabled stability also planted the seeds of decline.

This analysis traces the PDP’s journey from dominance to dysfunction: recurring internal crises, contested leadership transitions, disputes over zoning and succession, and a pattern of elite opportunism that hollowed out party cohesion. Each electoral cycle deepened mistrust. Each unresolved conflict weakened institutional discipline.

With sitting governors defecting, rival factions locked in court battles, and no unified national strategy ahead of the 2027 elections, the PDP’s capacity to function as a credible opposition is now in serious doubt. What emerges is not merely a party in trouble, but the collapse of a political arrangement designed for a specific historical moment.

The episode also raises broader democratic questions. Effective opposition is essential for accountability, balance, and governance. If Nigeria loses a viable opposition without a coherent alternative emerging, the implications will extend far beyond partisan politics.

Is the PDP truly at the end of its life — or merely at the end of a chapter? And if it is fading, what will rise to fill the vacuum it leaves behind?

This conversation is essential for anyone seeking to understand Nigeria’s evolving political order as the country moves toward another critical election cycle.

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